I finally got around to programming an easy Python down loader for CME data from Quandl. I promised this in my last book, but haven’t got that many requests. On the Ultimate Algorithmic Trading System…. page I have provided some data going back to early 2008 on several markers. This is a work in progress. I also wrote a back adjuster that rolls when the Open Interest + Volume is greater in the next contract and adjusts the data retroactively (Panama process) by the discount on the roll date. As I state on the web page this data is not all that great even though it looks like it comes directly from CME. I do fill in gaps and try to fix glaring errors so take it for what it is. Its good data for preliminary testing, but to finalize an algorithm or to trade by I would definitely go the “paid” route. Although the later data looks pretty good.
Before downloading the data I would sign up for Quandl and get an API key. You will be amazed at the amount of data they make available – free and paid subscriptions.
As long as you are in a bull market buying dips can be very consistent and profitable. But you want to use some type of entry signal and trade management other than just buying a dip and selling a rally. Here is the anatomy of a mean reversion trading algorithm that might introduce some code that you aren’t familiar. Scroll through the code and I will summarize below.
meanRevBuy = condition1 and condition2 and dontCatchFallingKnife; meanRevSell = not(condition1) and condition3 and dontCatchFallingKnife;
If meanRevBuy then buy this bar on close; If marketPosition = 1 and condition1 and value1 >= consecUpClose then sell("ConsecUpCls") this bar on close;
If meanRevSell then sellShort this bar on close; If marketPosition = -1 and not(condition1) and value2 >= consecDnClose then buyToCover this bar close;
setStopLoss(stopLoss$);
If barsSinceEntry = holdPeriod then Begin if marketPosition = 1 and not(meanRevBuy) then sell this bar on close; if marketPosition =-1 and not(meanRevSell) then buytocover this bar on close; end;
Mean Reversion System
I am using a very short term RSI indicator, a la Connors, to initiate long trades. Basically when the 2 period RSI dips below 30 and the close is above the 200-day moving average I will buy only if I am not buying “a falling knife.” In February several Mean Reversion algos kept buying as the market fell and eventually got stopped out with large losses. Had they held on they probably would have been OK. Here I don’t buy if the absolute price difference between today’s close and yesterday’s is greater than 2 X the ten day average true range. Stay away from too much “VOL.”
Once a trade is put on I use the following logic to keep track of consecutive closing relationships:
For iCnt = 0 to consecUpClose - 1 Begin value1 = value1 + iff(c[iCnt] > c[iCnt+1],1,0); end;
Using the IFF function in EasyLanguage
Here I am using the IFF function to compare today’s close with the prior day’s. iCnt is a loop counter that goes from 0 to 1. IFF checks the comparison and if it’s true it returns the first value after the comparison and if false it returns the last value. Here if I have two consecutive up closes value1 accumulates to 2. If I am long and I have two up closes I get out. With this template you can easily change this by modifying the input: consecUpClose. Trade management also includes a protective stop and a time based exit. If six days transpire without two up closes then the system gets out – if the market can’t muster two positive closes, then its probably not going to go anywhere. The thing with mean reversion, more so with other types of systems, is the use or non use of a protective stop. Wide stops are really best, because you are betting on the market to revert. Look at the discrepancy of results using different stop levels on this system:
Here an $1,800 stop only cut the max draw down by $1,575. But it came at a cost of $17K in profit. Stops, in the case of Mean Reversion, are really used for the comfort of the trader.
This code has the major components necessary to create a complete trading system. Play around with the code and see if you can come up with a better entry mechanism.
Backtesting with [Trade Station,Python,AmiBroker, Excel]. Intended for informational and educational purposes only!
Get All Five Books in the Easing Into EasyLanguage Series - The Trend Following Edition is now Available!
Announcement – A Trend Following edition has been added to my Easing into EasyLanguage Series! This edition will be the fifth and final installment and will utilize concepts discussed in the Foundation editions. I will pay respect to the legends of Trend Following by replicating the essence of their algorithms. Learn about the most prominent form of algorithmic trading. But get geared up for it by reading the first four editions in the series now. Get your favorite QUANT the books they need!
This series includes five editions that covers the full spectrum of the EasyLanguage programming language. Fully compliant with TradeStation and mostly compliant with MultiCharts. Start out with the Foundation Edition. It is designed for the new user of EasyLanguage or for those you would like to have a refresher course. There are 13 tutorials ranging from creating Strategies to PaintBars. Learn how to create your own functions or apply stops and profit objectives. Ever wanted to know how to find an inside day that is also a Narrow Range 7 (NR7?) Now you can, and the best part is you get over 4 HOURS OF VIDEO INSTRUCTION – one for each tutorial.
This book is ideal for those who have completed the Foundation Edition or have some experience with EasyLanguage, especially if you’re ready to take your programming skills to the next level. The Hi-Res Edition is designed for programmers who want to build intraday trading systems, incorporating trade management techniques like profit targets and stop losses. This edition bridges the gap between daily and intraday bar programming, making it easier to handle challenges like tracking the sequence of high and low prices within the trading day. Plus, enjoy 5 hours of video instruction to guide you through each tutorial.
The Advanced Topics Edition delves into essential programming concepts within EasyLanguage, offering a focused approach to complex topics. This book covers arrays and fixed-length buffers, including methods for element management, extraction, and sorting. Explore finite state machines using the switch-case construct, text graphic manipulation to retrieve precise X and Y coordinates, and gain insights into seasonality with the Ruggiero/Barna Universal Seasonal and Sheldon Knight Seasonal methods. Additionally, learn to build EasyLanguage projects, integrate fundamental data like Commitment of Traders, and create multi-timeframe indicators for comprehensive analysis.
The Day Trading Edition complements the other books in the series, diving into the popular approach of day trading, where overnight risk is avoided (though daytime risk still applies!). Programming on high-resolution data, such as five- or one-minute bars, can be challenging, and this book provides guidance without claiming to be a “Holy Grail.” It’s not for ultra-high-frequency trading but rather for those interested in techniques like volatility-based breakouts, pyramiding, scaling out, and zone-based trading. Ideal for readers of the Foundation and Hi-Res editions or those with EasyLanguage experience, this book offers insights into algorithms that shaped the day trading industry.
For thirty-one years as the Director of Research at Futures Truth Magazine, I had the privilege of collaborating with renowned experts in technical analysis, including Fitschen, Stuckey, Ruggiero, Fox, and Waite. I gained invaluable insights as I watched their trend-following methods reach impressive peaks, face sharp declines, and ultimately rebound. From late 2014 to early 2020, I witnessed a dramatic downturn across the trend-following industry. Iconic systems like Aberration, CatScan, Andromeda, and Super Turtle—once thriving on robust trends of the 1990s through early 2010s—began to falter long before the pandemic. Since 2020 we have seen the familiar trends return. Get six hours of video instruction with this edition.
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