Category Archives: MultiCharts

Can the Recursive Gaussian Channel Beat the Battle Tested Bollinger Band?

Bridging 19th‑century mathematics and 21st‑century trading methods

A client sent me what looked like a simple indicator written in TradingView’s Pine Script—though I didn’t realize it was Pine at first—and asked if I could port it to EasyLanguage (or PowerLanguage for MultiCharts). If you Google “Gaussian Channel Donovan Wall TradingView,” you’ll find the original code. Pine Script isn’t exactly newcomer-friendly; it’s fine once you get the feel for it, but I’m spoiled by EasyLanguage, which —at least to my eye—reads almost like plain English. (Others may beg to differ!) Below is a brief Pine snippet; to this humble EL devotee, it’s more hieroglyphics than prose.

    _m2 := _i == 9 ? 36  : _i == 8 ? 28 : _i == 7 ? 21 : _i == 6 ? 15 : _i == 5 ? 10 : _i == 4 ? 6 : _i == 3 ? 3 : _i == 2 ? 1 : 0
_m3 := _i == 9 ? 84 : _i == 8 ? 56 : _i == 7 ? 35 : _i == 6 ? 20 : _i == 5 ? 10 : _i == 4 ? 4 : _i == 3 ? 1 : 0
_m4 := _i == 9 ? 126 : _i == 8 ? 70 : _i == 7 ? 35 : _i == 6 ? 15 : _i == 5 ? 5 : _i == 4 ? 1 : 0
_m5 := _i == 9 ? 126 : _i == 8 ? 56 : _i == 7 ? 21 : _i == 6 ? 6 : _i == 5 ? 1 : 0
_m6 := _i == 9 ? 84 : _i == 8 ? 28 : _i == 7 ? 7 : _i == 6 ? 1 : 0
_m7 := _i == 9 ? 36 : _i == 8 ? 8 : _i == 7 ? 1 : 0
_m8 := _i == 9 ? 9 : _i == 8 ? 1 : 0
_m9 := _i == 9 ? 1 : 0

I could see right away that the code was doing some kind of coefficient “lookup,” so I ran it through ChatGPT to get a quick explanation. The model suggested it was building weights from Pascal’s Triangle. A bit later the client sent me the original TradingView post, which confirmed the script was using John Ehlers’s Gaussian filter to build a channel—similar in spirit to Keltner or Bollinger bands.

Once Ehlers’s name popped up, the next stop was his resource-rich site (mesasoftware.com/TechnicalArticles) for the theory behind the filter. I also searched for a ready-made EasyLanguage version but came up empty. With ChatGPT’s help I decided to roll my own; after all, knocking out support code like this is exactly what these AI tools are for.

What do Carl Friedrich Gauss, Blaise Pascal, and the markets have in common.

You’ve probably bumped into the bell curve in school—maybe in a stats class, maybe when teachers “graded on a curve.” Mathematicians call it by a few interchangeable names:

  • Normal distribution (stats class)
  • Gaussian curve (named after Carl Friedrich Gauss)
  • Binomial curve (because it pops out of Pascal’s Triangle)

No matter the label, it’s the same smooth hump that says, “most values cluster in the middle, very few at the extremes.” Gauss formalized the formula, Pascal’s Triangle supplies the ready‑made integer weights, and traders borrow both ideas to build filters that tame noisy price charts.

Big picture: Gauss gives us the shape of the curve, Pascal gives us the exact numbers to approximate it, and that combo lets us create a market indicator that reacts quickly and stays smooth.

How does this help build an indicator?

The word channel is in the name of the indicator, so it was highly likely we are dealing with a smoothed price with an upper and lower band a certain distance from the smoothed price.  If you feed this into Chat GPT and ask for it in EasyLanguage, it will create an indicator using a bunch of arrays.  See Chat GPT isn’t 100% knowledgeable of EasyLanguage like it is with python.  It didn’t understand the concept of EasyLanguage’s serialized variables.  You know where you can refer to a prior value of a variable – myValue[1] or myValue[2].  Chat tries to replicate this with the usage of arrays which gets you into a bunch of trouble right off the bat.  Let’s discuss this a little later.

The Mechanics of smoothing price with Pascal’s Triangle, or Gaussian Kernal or Binomial Coefficients.

(a + b)^2 = a^2 + 2ab + b^2 → coefficients 1  2  1

(a + b)^3 = a^3 + 3a^2b + 3ab^2 + b^3 → coefficients 1 3 3 1

(a + b)^4 = a^4 + 4a^3b + 6a^2b^2 + 4ab^3 + b^4 → coefficients 1 4 6 4 1

(a + b)^5 → coefficients 1 5 10 10 5 1

(a + b)^6 → coefficients 1 6 15 20 15 6 1

(a + b)^7 → coefficients 1 7 21 35 35 21 7 1

(a + b)^8 → coefficients 1 8 28 56 70 56 28 8 1

(a + b)^9 → coefficients 1 9 36 84 126 126 84 36 9 1
Binomial Coefficients

Stack those rows, keep going, and you build Pascal’s Triangle—each number is the sum of the two numbers just above it.

Look at the 7th row of Pascal’s Triangle:

1  6  15  20  15  6  1

Normalize those numbers (divide by their sum), and you obtain a discrete approximation of a Gaussian kernel.  Big Deal, right?  You don’t need to know the math behind this, just know that each row in Pascal’s triangle is symmetric.  Each row starts are one and ends at one.  You can use these coefficients to weight each value across a period of time.  Do you mean all this math stuff is akin to a weighted moving average.

Idea Weighted Moving Average Binomial / Gaussian weights Why they feel similar
What it does Averages recent prices, but gives newer bars bigger weights (e.g., 1-2-3-4). Averages recent prices using the numbers from Pascal’s Triangle (e.g., 1-4-6-4-1). Both are just weighted sums of past prices.
Shape of the weights Forms a triangle – rises steadily to the newest bar, then drops to zero beyond the window. Forms a bell – climbs to the centre, then falls off symmetrically. Triangles and bells are both peaked shapes: the middle matters most, the edges least.
Normalizing step Divide by the sum of the weights (e.g., 1+2+3+4 = 10) so they add to 1. Same: divide by 1+4+6+4+1 = 16 so they add to 1. After normalizing, each is just a fancy way to say “take a percentage of each bar and add them up.”
Smoothing power Good at knocking out single-bar noise, but the straight sides of the triangle let more mid-frequency wiggles through. Slightly better at suppressing both very fast and mid-speed wiggles, so the line looks cleaner. Both cut random jitter while trying not to lag too far behind real turns.
Math connection A single pass of linear weights. What you get if you apply a two-point moving average over and over again (each pass builds the next Pascal row). Re-applying a simple WMA repeatedly evolves into the binomial weights – that’s the family link.

Which comes first the indicator or the function that feeds the indicator?

If you are working with code and especially with ChatGPT or any other LLM you need a medium where you can quickly program and observe results.  The indicator analysis module will give you instant results. and this is where you should start.  However, if you look at the TradingView code of the Gaussian Channel you will notice that the smoothing function is called twice, once for the close and once for the true range on each bar.  In other words, you are using the same code twice and incorporating this without functions would be redundant.  In my first attempt, I created the smoothing function and named it Binomial, and the channels were a magnitude of 10 below the current price.  So, all the price bars were scrunched at the very top of the chart.  At first if you don’t succeed, try and try and try and try again.

At first ChatGPT kept insisting on arrays because it didn’t realize EasyLanguage can reference earlier bars just by tagging a variable with [n]. EasyLanguage conveniently hides that bookkeeping, but you have to tell the model so it stops reinventing circular buffers. Once I explained that a local variable—say filt—already remembers its prior values (filt[1], filt[2], etc.), the conversation moved forward.

The next hurdle was clarifying that Donovan’s script feeds raw data (Close and TrueRange) into every stage, not the output of the previous stage. ChatGPT was trying to build a true cascade—each pole using the prior pole’s result—whereas Donovan calculates each pole completely independently. After I pointed that out, the model rewrote the logic correctly and even walked me through the difference:

  1. Cascaded filter → Pole 2 uses Pole 1’s output, Pole 3 uses Pole 2’s, and so on.

  2. Independent poles → Every pole starts over with the raw Close and Range.

That explanation finally squared the circle and let me produce an EasyLanguage version that matches the original TradingView indicator.

“Cascade” = one stage feeding the next

Think of a cascade as a relay race:

  1. Stage 1 (“Pole 1”) takes the raw price, smooths it a little, and hands the baton to …

  2. Stage 2 (“Pole 2”), which smooths the output of stage 1 a bit more, then passes to …

  3. Stage 3, and so on.

After 4-, 6-, or 9-hand-offs the combined shape of all those little smooths matches the full Gaussian bell.


The indicator lets you pick anywhere from two to nine poles to do the heavy lifting on the data-smoothing. And no, we’re not talking about the North and South Poles—or the kind you cast a fishing line from.

So, what is a pole?

In filter speak, a pole is one little “memory stage” inside the math that reaches back to yesterday’s value (or last bar’s value) before deciding today’s output. Stack more poles and you stack more of those memory stages:

  • 1 pole → basically a quick-and-dirty exponential average.

  • 4 poles → four mini-averages chained together; much smoother, a hair more lag.

  • 9 poles → nine stages deep; super-silky curve, but you’ll feel the delay.

Think of each pole as a coffee filter. One filter catches the big grounds, two filters catch the sludge, and by the time you’ve got nine stacked up, you’re practically drinking distilled water. Same beans in, different smoothness out.

You can dial in two extra tweaks:

  • Lag compensation – Tell the code to look one step ahead by swapping in a one-bar forecast of price for the raw price. That little nudge pulls the channel forward so it doesn’t trail the market.
  • Extra smoothing – Want the line even silkier? Flip the switch and the function just averages the most-recent two filter values. It’s a tiny moving average—jitter drops a notch, lag creeps up by only half a bar.

For illustrative purposes this is how Pole 6 is calculated.  I also show a mapping scheme to store Pascal’s triangle into arrays.  I put all this code inside a function with the name BinomialFilterN.

{─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
2. Hard-code every Pascal row (n = 1 … 9)
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────}
once
begin
{ n = 1 : 1 1 }
m0Map[1] = 1; m1Map[1] = 1;

{ n = 2 : 1 2 1 }
m0Map[2] = 1; m1Map[2] = 2; m2Map[2] = 1;

{ n = 3 : 1 3 3 1 }
m0Map[3] = 1; m1Map[3] = 3; m2Map[3] = 3; m3Map[3] = 1;

{ n = 4 : 1 4 6 4 1 }
m0Map[4] = 1; m1Map[4] = 4; m2Map[4] = 6; m3Map[4] = 4;
m4Map[4] = 1;

{ n = 5 : 1 5 10 10 5 1 }
m0Map[5] = 1; m1Map[5] = 5; m2Map[5] = 10; m3Map[5] = 10;
m4Map[5] = 5; m5Map[5] = 1;

{ n = 6 : 1 6 15 20 15 6 1 }
m0Map[6] = 1; m1Map[6] = 6; m2Map[6] = 15; m3Map[6] = 20;
m4Map[6] = 15; m5Map[6] = 6; m6Map[6] = 1;

{ n = 7 : 1 7 21 35 35 21 7 1 }
m0Map[7] = 1; m1Map[7] = 7; m2Map[7] = 21; m3Map[7] = 35;
m4Map[7] = 35; m5Map[7] = 21; m6Map[7] = 7; m7Map[7] = 1;

{ n = 8 : 1 8 28 56 70 56 28 8 1 }
m0Map[8] = 1; m1Map[8] = 8; m2Map[8] = 28; m3Map[8] = 56;
m4Map[8] = 70; m5Map[8] = 56; m6Map[8] = 28; m7Map[8] = 8;
m8Map[8] = 1;

{ n = 9 : 1 9 36 84 126 126 84 36 9 1 }
m0Map[9] = 1; m1Map[9] = 9; m2Map[9] = 36; m3Map[9] = 84;
m4Map[9] = 126; m5Map[9] = 126; m6Map[9] = 84; m7Map[9] = 36;
m8Map[9] = 9; m9Map[9] = 1;
end;

{─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
3. Working variables
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────}
variables:
beta_(0), { = 1 – alpha }
f1(0), f2(0), f3(0), f4(0), f5(0),
f6(0), f7(0), f8(0), f9(0),
f(0);

beta_ = 1 - alpha;

{─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
4. Initialise memory until we have enough bars
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────}
if currentBar <= poleCount then
begin
f1 = 0; f2 = 0; f3 = 0; f4 = 0; f5 = 0;
f6 = 0; f7 = 0; f8 = 0; f9 = 0;
end
else
begin
{================== 1-pole ==================}
if poleCount = 1 then
begin
f1 = m0Map[1]*power(alpha,1)*source
+ m1Map[1]*power(beta_,1)*f1[1];
f = f1;
end;

{================== 2-pole ==================}
{================== 3-pole ==================}
{================== 4-pole ==================}
{================== 5-pole ==================}
{================== 6-pole ==================}

if poleCount = 6 then
begin
f6 = m0Map[6]*power(alpha,6)*source
+ m1Map[6]*power(beta_,1)*f6[1]
- m2Map[6]*power(beta_,2)*f6[2]
+ m3Map[6]*power(beta_,3)*f6[3]
- m4Map[6]*power(beta_,4)*f6[4]
+ m5Map[6]*power(beta_,5)*f6[5]
- m6Map[6]*power(beta_,6)*f6[6];
f = f6;
end;
Code showing Pascal's Triangle and 6 pole smoothing

There is redundant code here, but I included it to make it readable for most of my EasyLanguage/PowerLanguage programmers.   The math is very simple when you break it down.  If we choose Pole #6 all we do is:

beta_ = (1 – Cosine(360 / per)) / (Power(1.414, 2 / numPoles) – 1);
alpha = -beta_ + SquareRoot(beta_ * beta_ + 2 * beta);

  1. 1 x alpha^6 x close
  2. plus 6 x beta^1 x prior f6[1]
  3. minus 15 x beta^2 x f6[2]
  4. plus 20 x beta^3 x f6[3]
  5. minus 15 x beta^4 x f6[4]
  6. plus 6 x beta^5 x f6[5]
  7. minus 1 x beta^6 x f6[6]

EasyLanguage’s trig calls expect degrees, while most other languages want radians. That’s why the code feeds Cosine(360 / per)—the 360 converts the cycle length into degrees before taking the cosine.

I also lift the constant √2 (1.414…) by squaring it with Power(1.414, 2)and use the same Power routine for roots—for example, the cube root of x is simply Power(x, 1 / 3).

I placed BinomialFilterN inside a second routine called GaussianChannelFunc—a classic wrapper.

Why bother with the extra layer?

Reason What the wrapper does before/after calling BinomialFilterN
Housekeeping • Converts the user-friendly period (per) into the α required by the core filter.• Optional one-bar “look-ahead” to cancel lag.• Runs the filter twice (price and TrueRange).
Packaging • Builds upper, centre, and lower bands from the two filtered series.• Returns all three numbers through one array argument.
Extensibility Tomorrow you can tweak the channel logic—different volatility measure, ATR multiplier, extra smoothing—without touching the filter math. The heavy-duty code stays in BinomialFilterN; the wrapper simply preps inputs and formats outputs.

Think of it as a coffee machine:

  • BinomialFilterN is the brewing unit—hot water + grounds in, espresso out, and it never changes.
  • GaussianChannelFunc is the barista: grinds the beans, measures the water, adds milk and foam, then hands you the finished latte. If you want vanilla syrup tomorrow, you ask the barista; you don’t redesign the boiler.

By splitting the work this way, each piece stays focused, easier to test, and simple to extend later.

The wrapper has to hand back three numbers—upper band, centre line, and lower band—yet an EasyLanguage function can formally return only one. The standard workaround is to pass the additional outputs by reference:

// upper are caught by the receiving function as type numericRef
// can get unweilding quickly
value1 = GaussianChannelFunc(src, periods, numOfPoles,compLag, smooth, upper, mid, lower);
Code Snippet - Calling the function with three containers for the levels

That works, but the call quickly turns into a mile-long argument list.
Instead, I bundle those three outputs into a tiny array and pass the array’s address once:


array:GaussianChanArray[3](0); // remember we can use [0]

value1 = GaussianChannelFunc(src, periods, numOfPoles, compLag, smooth,GaussianChanArray);

upperChannel = GaussianChanArray[0];
centreLine = GaussianChanArray[1];
lowerChannel = GaussianChanArray[2];
Using a simple array as container for return values

This wasn’t that impressive, but what if your function needed to return five values?

Now onto the indicator and the strategy

From the outside this looks like a quick coding job—but getting here was a series of detours. I let ChatGPT drive and only nudged when it went off-track. Here are the dead-ends we hit before the indicator finally behaved:

  • Pine-script blind spot
    • ChatGPT didn’t recognise TradingView syntax, so its first translation attempts were gibberish.
  • “Mystery math” instead of binomial weights
    • After I mentioned Ehlers and Gaussian smoothing, the model invented a dynamic weighting scheme rather than using the fixed Pascal-triangle numbers the original script relies on.
  • Arrays everywhere
    • It kept insisting on circular buffers because it didn’t realise EasyLanguage variables already remember their own history via [1], [2], etc.
  • Wrong memory reference
    • Even after the array issue was fixed, the code updated each pole with raw price / range instead of the pole’s own prior output.
  • Unwanted filter cascade
    • ChatGPT then tried a true “cascade” (pole 2 fed by pole 1, pole 3 by pole 2). Donovan’s version calculates every pole independently—so we had to unwind that and start over.
  • Sign-flip confusion
    • It forgot the plus/minus pattern that keeps the Gaussian zero-lagged, producing a line that trailed price by several bars.

Each course-correction tightened the spec until the model finally spit out the straight, hard-coded-coefficients version you see now.

After all that was it worth the time and analysis?

  • A stop version where you buy at and sell short at the upper and lower levels worked best.  Liquidating at the midlevel on a stop was also incorporated.
  • Using a large profit objective and a relatively small stop loss seemed to work best.
  • Intermediate period length and utilizing 8 poles produced the best results.

ELD for TradeStation and Multicharts

GAUSSIANSTUDY

Text files of functions, indicator and strategies

GaussianChannelFunc Function

Head to Head with Bollinger Bands

Test results across 22 commodities for the past 25 years.

Gaussian Channel:  Optimizing the period and ATR multiplier with 8 poles:

Simple Bollinger Band: optimizing moving average length and number of standard deviations

Conclusion (fight-card style)

Decision on the first bout:
The Rolling heavy-hitter—Bollinger Bands—lands the cleaner power shots and takes the scorecards in our 22-commodity test.

But don’t call it a knockout just yet.
The Recursive counter-puncher—the Gaussian Channel—fights with an extra weapon: pole count. Adjusting those poles changes how tightly the centre line hugs price, and we’ve only sparred with one setting.

Next round:
Tune the poles, test different time-frames, and pit the fighters on equities and FX. The smarter, jabbing Gaussian might steal the rematch once its footwork is dialed in.

 

EasyLanguage Version Control and Back Up

I Can’t Believe I Just Lost All My Studies!

“How can I not restore it? I back up my files every week!” Have you found yourself in this same predicament before.  Somehow, I’ve lost my code more times than I care to admit. The TradeStation and MultiCharts paradigm of requiring us to store our precious strategies and indicators in a proprietary, non–text format has its advantages, but to me the drawbacks far outweigh any benefits.

  • Pros of a proprietary library: Seamless integration, single-click compile/run, built-in (if limited) version history, encryption, and straightforward workspace management.

  • Cons: Opaque blobs that aren’t easily diffed, harder to back up in granular increments, potential single point of failure, and extra steps when migrating to other tools.

Git is overkill for a single developer of an EasyLanguage Study.

Most programmers who work in a domain‐specific language like EasyLanguage simply don’t “get” Git. If you’re unfamiliar with Git, here’s a quick definition:

Git is the version‐control system created by Linus Torvalds—yes, the same Linus Torvalds who gave us Linux and turned down a huge payday to release it as open source. Git lets multiple developers track changes, revert to earlier versions, and collaborate seamlessly on code without stepping on each other’s toes.

Git records changes to a project by taking snapshots (commits) of its files and storing them in a distributed repository, so developers can branch and merge independently before synchronizing updates. It’s often hard to grasp because the concepts of branching, merging, and distributed workflows differ from linear, centralized versioning models and require a shift in thinking and terminology.

Fun fact: ChatGPT did a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggesting that, had Linus charged for Linux, his net worth could be as high as $50 billion. In reality, he’s a salaried employee at the Linux Foundation with a net worth closer to $10 million—proof that the open-source model can be wildly generous for everyone except the original author.

What is an EasyLanguage programmer to do?

One straightforward (but labor-intensive) method is to copy your EasyLanguage or PowerLanguage code into a plain-text editor like Notepad and save it in a well-named folder—either locally or in the cloud. That gives you a basic text-based backup. If you want to track versions, you can simply take a snapshot every time you make a change and append a version number to the filename (e.g., MyStrategy_v1.0.txt, MyStrategy_v1.1.txt, etc.). For most solo EasyLanguage developers, this ad-hoc versioning is sufficient, since you’re typically the only person editing the code. However, in the unlikelihood that you do collaborate with others, it becomes cumbersome to merge updates or see exactly what changed between versions. In this scenario, learning GIT would be worthwhile.

Because EasyLanguage developers typically work solo (to protect their proprietary code), most don’t bother with Git. And let’s face it—many of us get lazy about backups and versioning. You create a strategy that works, start tweaking it, and before you know it you can’t recall how to revert to the original. Who else has been down that road?

A few years ago, I developed a simple macro with AutoIt where I would hit <CTRL> F9 and all the code in my current editor window was select and copied and saved to a new text file.

Recently I modified the macro to add a version suffix to the filename if the filename already exits.  If you hit save and the lates version is _v002.txt, then the macro will save it as _v003.txt

Back up – Checked!  Version control – Checked!  Anything else?

I do use Git for my multi‐file projects—it’s fantastic for instantly showing me what changed between commits when something breaks. I wish I had that same “see the diff” workflow for my EasyLanguage scripts. Thanks to WinMerge, I actually can: just select two versions of my script, and it highlights every added, removed, or modified line. WinMerge is free to use (they do ask for a small donation if you find it valuable), and now I can conveniently compare any two snapshots of my code—just like I would with Git.

The differences will be highlighted in the document maps on the left side and then also directly in the code.

Take a look at this video to see my workflow.

What good are these tools if you don’t use them?

I tried to make the task of backing up and version control as simple as clicking <ctrl> F9.  Now it is up to you to do it.  I promise the more you do it, the less of hassle it will become, and I can almost guarantee you will thank me in the future.  Trust me – this is as easy as GIT.  However, setting up GIT is not a cakewalk.

Here all you need to do is download the two software and following the instructions in getting the following script compiled to an .exe.  Trust me it is much easier than it looks.  I am providing this information so that I don’t have to provide an .EXE and all of the headaches involved with downloading it.  However, if you are cool with downloading an .EXE, then shoot me an email and I will provide a link.

In few days I will publish some results of the work of my “Snap-Back” strategy.

This is the AutoIt script you will need to copy after you download AutoIt.  Don’t worry you don’t need to understand it.  After the code listing, I give step by step instructions on how to turn the script into an executable.

#include <Clipboard.au3>
#include <File.au3>
#include <MsgBoxConstants.au3>
#include <StringConstants.au3>

; Set hotkeys:
HotKeySet("^{F9}", "CaptureActiveWindow") ; F9 → capture text
HotKeySet("^{F12}", "TerminateScript") ; F12 → exit script

; Keep the script running
While 1
Sleep(100)
WEnd

Func CaptureActiveWindow()
; 1) Get full active window title
Local $activeTitle = WinGetTitle("[ACTIVE]")

; 2) Extract just the tab name (text after the last " - ")
Local $tabName = StringRegExpReplace($activeTitle, '^.* - (.+)$', '\1')
If $tabName = $activeTitle Then
; no dash found, use full title
$tabName = $activeTitle
EndIf

; 3) Remove illegal filename characters
Local $cleanTitle = StringRegExpReplace($tabName, '[\\\/:\*\?"<>\|]', "")
If $cleanTitle = "" Then $cleanTitle = "CapturedText"

; 4) Build default filename
Local $defaultFileName = $cleanTitle & ".txt"

; 5) Activate window and copy its contents
WinActivate($activeTitle)
Sleep(200)
Send("^a") ; Select all
Sleep(200)
Send("^c") ; Copy
Sleep(200)

; 6) Retrieve clipboard text
Local $text = _ClipBoard_GetData()
If @error Then
MsgBox($MB_ICONERROR, "Error", "Failed to get clipboard data.")
Return
EndIf

; 7) Ask user where to save, defaulting to our cleaned tab name
Local $savePath = FileSaveDialog( _
"Save Captured Text", _
@ScriptDir, _
"Text Files (*.txt)", _
2, _
$defaultFileName _
)
If $savePath = "" Then
MsgBox($MB_ICONINFORMATION, "Cancelled", "Save operation cancelled.")
Return
EndIf

; 8) Simple version control: if the file exists, append _v001, _v002, ...
Local $base = StringTrimRight($savePath, 4) ; remove .txt
Local $ext = ".txt"
Local $i = 1
Local $dest = $savePath
While FileExists($dest)
$dest = $base & "_v" & StringFormat("%03d", $i) & $ext
$i += 1
WEnd

; 9) Write the text to the versioned filename
Local $fileHandle = FileOpen($dest, 2) ; write mode
If $fileHandle = -1 Then
MsgBox($MB_ICONERROR, "Error", "Failed to open file for writing.")
Return
EndIf
FileWrite($fileHandle, $text)
FileClose($fileHandle)

MsgBox($MB_ICONINFORMATION, "Success", "Text saved successfully to:" & @CRLF & $dest)
EndFunc

Func TerminateScript()
Exit 0
EndFunc
Auto It Script - Set it and Forget it

Step 1: Download and Install AutoIt (plus SciTE-Lite)

  1. Go to the AutoIt website: https://www.autoitscript.com/site/autoit/downloads/
  2. Under “AutoIt Full Installation,” click Download.
  3. Run the downloaded installer (AutoIt3.exe) and follow the prompts:
  • Accept the license agreement.
  • Leave all default components checked (this installs both AutoIt and SciTE-Lite).
  • Finish the installation.

After this, you’ll have:

  • AutoIt (the compiler/interpreter) in your Program Files.
  • SciTE-Lite (a lightweight code editor preconfigured for AutoIt) installed, usually at
 C:\Program Files (x86)\AutoIt3\SciTE\

Step 2: Open SciTE-Lite and Create a New Script

  1. Launch SciTE-Lite:
  • Windows Start Menu → All Programs → AutoIt v3 → SciTE-Lite (AutoIt)
  • Or double-click the SciTE-Lite shortcut if one was placed on your desktop.
  • In SciTE-Lite, go to File → New (or press Ctrl+N). You’ll see a blank editor window.

Step 3: Copy Your Script Code from the Website

  1. Select all of the code (click inside the code block above, then press Ctrl+A) and copy (Ctrl+C).
  2. Return to the blank SciTE-Lite window and paste (Ctrl+V) the code into it.

Step 4: Save the Script as EzLangToText.au3

  1. In SciTE-Lite, choose File → Save As… (or press Ctrl+Shift+S).
  2. In the “Save As” dialog:
  • Navigate to Documents\AutoIt Scripts\ if it exists or stay in the default folder.
  • For “File name,” type:
  • EzLangToText.au3
  • Ensure “Save as type” is set to AutoIt v3 Source (*.au3).
  • Click Save.

Now SciTE-Lite knows this is an AutoIt script.


Step 5: Compile the Script to an .exe

  1. Make sure EzLangToText.au3 is the active tab in SciTE-Lite.

  2. Press F7 (or go to Tools → Compile).

  • SciTE-Lite runs AutoIt’s compiler (Aut2Exe) behind the scenes.
  • In the output pane at the bottom, you’ll see messages like “Compiling…” and finally “Compiled successfully.”
  • When the compile finishes, you’ll find EzLangToText.exe in the same folder as your .au3 file.

Step 6: Run the Resulting EXE

  • You can now double-click EzLangToText.exe to run it on any Windows PC (no AutoIt installation needed)


Some EasyLanguage Functions Are Really “Classy”

The Series Function is very special

When a function accesses a previously stored value of one of its own variables, it essentially becomes a “series” function. Few programming languages offer this convenience out of the box. The ability to automatically remember a function’s internal state from one bar (or time step) to the next is known as state retention. In languages like Python, achieving this typically requires using a class structure. In Module #2 of my Easing into EasyLanguage Academy, I explained why EasyLanguage isn’t as simple as its name implies—yet this feature shows how its developers aimed to simplify otherwise complex tasks.

If you’ve ever worked with functions with memory that exchange data using a numericRef input, you’ve essentially been using a pseudo-class—a form of object-oriented programming in its own right. EasyLanguage includes a robust object-oriented library (with excellent resources by Sunny Harris and Sam Tennis – buy their book on Amazon), yet you’re confined to its built-in functionality since it doesn’t yet support user-defined class structures. Nonetheless, the series functionality combined with data passing brings you remarkably close to a true object-oriented approach—and the best part is, you might not even realize it.

Example of a Series Function

I was recently working on the Trend Strength indicator/function and have been mulling this post over for some time, so I thought this would be a good time to write about it.  The following indicator to function conversion will create a function of type series (a function with a memory.)  The name series is very appropriate in that this type of function runs along with the time series of the chart.  It must do this so it can reference prior bar values.

You can ensure a function is treated as a series function in two ways:

  1. Using a Prior Value:
    When you reference a previous value within the function, EasyLanguage automatically recognizes the need to remember past data and treats the function as a series function.

  2. Setting the Series Property:
    Alternatively, you can explicitly set the function’s property to “series” via a dialog. This instructs EasyLanguage to handle the function as a series function, ensuring that state is maintained across bars.

    Manually Set the Function to type Series

Importantly, regardless of the function’s name or even if it’s called within control structures (like an if construct), a series function is evaluated on every bar. This guarantees that the historical data is consistently updated and maintained, which is essential for accurate time series analysis.

Converting an indicator to a function

You can find a wide variety of EasyLanguage indicators online, though many are available solely as indicators. This is fine if you’re only interested in plotting the values. However, if you want to incorporate an indicator into a trading strategy, you’ll need to convert it into a function. For calculation-intensive indicators, it’s best to follow a standard prototype: use inputs for interfacing, perform calculations via function calls, and apply the appropriate plotting mechanisms. By adhering to this development protocol, your indicator functions can be reused across different analysis studies, enhancing encapsulation and modularity. Fortunately, converting an indicator’s calculations into a function is a relatively straightforward process. Here is indicator that I found somewhere.

Inputs: 
ShortLength(13), // Shorter EMA length
LongLength(25), // Longer EMA length
SignalSmoothing(7); // Smoothing for signal line
Vars:
DoubleSmoothedPC(0),
DoubleSmoothedAbsPC(0),
TSIValue(0),
SignalLine(0);
// Price Change (PC)
Value1 = Close - Close[1];
// First Smoothing (EMA of PC and |PC|)
Value2 = XAverage(Value1, LongLength);
Value3 = XAverage(AbsValue(Value1), LongLength);
// Second Smoothing (EMA of First Smoothed Values)
DoubleSmoothedPC = XAverage(Value2, ShortLength);
DoubleSmoothedAbsPC = XAverage(Value3, ShortLength);
// Compute TSI
If DoubleSmoothedAbsPC <> 0 Then
TSIValue = 100 * (DoubleSmoothedPC / DoubleSmoothedAbsPC);

// Compute Signal Line
SignalLine = XAverage(TSIValue, SignalSmoothing);
// Plot the TSI and Signal Line
Plot1(TSIValue, "TSI");
Plot2(SignalLine, "Signal");
TSI via Web
Now we can functionize it.

Below is an example of how you might convert an indicator into a function called TrendStrengthIndex. Notice that the first change is to replace any hard-coded numbers in the indicator’s inputs with parameters declared as numericSimple (or numericSeries where appropriate). This allows the function to accept dynamic values when called.  Not to give anything away, but you can also declare variables as numericRef, numericSeries, numericArrayRef, string, stringRef, and stringArrayRef.  Let’s not worry about these types right now.

inputs: 
ShortLength(numericSimple), // Shorter EMA length
LongLength(numericSimple), // Longer EMA length
SignalSmoothing(numericSimple); // Smoothing for signal line
Inputs must be changed to function nomenclature

Below is an example function conversion for the TrendStrengthIndex indicator.  The plot statements have been commented out since—rather than plotting—the function now passes back the calculated value to the calling program.

Vars:
DoubleSmoothedPC(0),
DoubleSmoothedAbsPC(0),
TSIValue(0),
SignalLine(0);
// Price Change (PC)
Value1 = Close - Close[1];
// First Smoothing (EMA of PC and |PC|)
Value2 = XAverage(Value1, LongLength);
Value3 = XAverage(AbsValue(Value1), LongLength);
// Second Smoothing (EMA of First Smoothed Values)
DoubleSmoothedPC = XAverage(Value2, ShortLength);
DoubleSmoothedAbsPC = XAverage(Value3, ShortLength);
// Compute TSI
If DoubleSmoothedAbsPC <> 0 Then
TSIValue = 100 * (DoubleSmoothedPC / DoubleSmoothedAbsPC);

// Compute Signal Line
SignalLine = XAverage(TSIValue, SignalSmoothing);
// Plot the TSI and Signal Line
//Plot1(TSIValue, "TSI"); commented out
//Plot2(SignalLine, "Signal"); commented out
TrendSTrengthIndex = TSIValue;
Functionalize It!

This works great if we just want the TrendStrengthIndex, but this indicator, like many others has a signal line.  The signal line for such indicators is usually a smoothed version of the main calculation.  Now you could do this smoothing outside the function, but wouldn’t it be easier if we did everything inside of the function?

Oh no!  I need to pass more than one value back!

If we just wanted to pass back TSIValue all we need to do is assign the name of the function to this value.

Passing values by reference

We can adjust the function to return multiple values by defining some of the inputs as numericRef. Essentially, when you pass a variable as a numericRef, you’re actually handing over its memory address—okay, let’s get nerdy for a moment! This means that when the function updates the value at that address, the calling routine immediately sees the change, giving the variable a kind of quasi-global behavior. Without numericRef, any modifications made inside the function stay local and never propagate back to the caller.  Not only is the function communicating with the calling strategy or indicator it is also remember its own stuff for future use.  Take a look at this code.

inputs: 
ShortLength(numericSimple), // Shorter EMA length
LongLength(numericSimple), // Longer EMA length
SignalSmoothing(numericSimple), // Smoothing for signal line

TrendStrength.index(numericRef), // Output
TrendStrength.signal(numericRef); //OutPut
Vars:
DoubleSmoothedPC(0),
DoubleSmoothedAbsPC(0),
SignalLine(0);

// Force series FUNCTION BEHAVIOR
Value4 = Value3[1];
// Price Change (PC)
Value1 = Close - Close[1];
// First Smoothing (EMA of PC and |PC|)
Value2 = XAverage(Value1, LongLength);
Value3 = XAverage(AbsValue(Value1), LongLength);

// Second Smoothing (EMA of First Smoothed Values)
DoubleSmoothedPC = XAverage(Value2, ShortLength);
DoubleSmoothedAbsPC = XAverage(Value3, ShortLength);
// Compute TSI
If DoubleSmoothedAbsPC <> 0 Then
TrendStrength.index = 100 * (DoubleSmoothedPC / DoubleSmoothedAbsPC);

// Compute Signal Line
TrendStrength.signal = XAverage(TrendStrength.index, SignalSmoothing);

TrendStrengthIndex = 1;
Is this a function or is it a class?

There is a lot going on here.  Since we are storing our calculations in the two numericRef inputs, TrendStrength.index and TrendStrength.signal the function name can simply be assigned the number 1.  You only need to do this because the function needs to be assigned something, or you will get a syntax error.  Since we are talking objects, I think it would be appropriate to introduce “dot notation.”  When programming with objects you access the class members and methods buy using a dot.  If you have an exponential moving average class in python you would access the variables and functions (methods) in the class like this.

class ExponentialMovingAverage:
# Class-level defaults serve as initial values.
alpha = 0.2 # Default smoothing factor
ema = None # EMA starts as None

def update(self, price):
"""
Update the EMA with a new price.

Parameters:
price (float): The new price to incorporate.

Returns:
float: The updated EMA value.
"""
# If ema is None, this is the first update
if self.ema is None:
self.ema = price
else:
self.ema = self.alpha * price + (1 - self.alpha) * self.ema
return self.ema

# Create an instance of the class.
ema_calculator = ExponentialMovingAverage()

# Dot notation to access the class attribute.
print("Alpha value:", ema_calculator.alpha)

# Dot notation to access the EMA attribute before any updates.
print("Initial EMA (should be None):", ema_calculator.ema)

# Dot notation to call the update method.
ema_value = ema_calculator.update(10)
print("EMA after update with 10:", ema_value)
Using dot notation to extract values from a class

Since you are using EasyLanguage and a series function, you don’t have to deal with something like this.  On the surface this looks a little gross but coming from a programming background this is quite eloquent.  I only show this to demonstrate dot notation.  In an attempt to mimic dot notation in the EasyLanguage function, I simply add a period ” , ” to the input variable names that will return the numbers we need to plot.  Take a look at the nomenclature I am using.

    TrendStrength.index(numericRef), // Output
TrendStrength.signal(numericRef); //OutPut
Function Name +

I am using the function name a ” . ” and an appropriate variable name.  This is not necessary.  Historically, input names that were modified within a function were preceded by the letter “O.”  In this example, Oindex and Osignal.  This represented “output.”  Remember these naming conventions are all up to you.  Here is the new indicator using our EasyLanguage “Classy” function and our pseudo dot notation nomenclature.

//Utilize the TrendStrengthIndex classsy function

inputs: shortLength1(9), longLength1(19), signalSmoothing1(9);
inputs: shortLength2(19), longLength2(39), signalSmoothing2(13);

vars: trendStrength1.index(0), trendStrength1.signal(0);
vars: trendStrength2.index(0), trendStrength2.signal(0);
value1 = TrendStrengthIndex(shortLength1,longLength1,signalSmoothing1,trendStrength1.index,trendStrength1.signal);
value2 = TrendStrengthIndex(shortLength2,longLength2,signalSmoothing2,trendStrength2.index,trendStrength2.signal);


plot1(trendStrength1.index,"TS-Index-1");
plot2(trendStrength1.signal,"TS-Signal-1");

plot3(trendStrength2.index,"TS-Index-2");
plot4(trendStrength2.signal,"TS-Signal-2");
Take a look at how we access the information we need from the function calls.

You might be surprised to learn that you may have been doing object-oriented programming all along without realizing it. Do you prefer the clarity of dot notation for accessing function output, or would you rather stick with a notation that uses a big “O” combined with the input name to represent functions with multiple outputs? Also, notice how each function call behaves like a new instance—the internal values remain discrete, meaning that each call remembers its own state independently.  In other words, each function call remembers its own stuff.

Two distinct function values from the same function – called twice on the same bar.

RMI Trend Sniper in EasyLanguage

RMI Trend Sniper Indicator – Described on ProRealTime in PR Code.

RMI Trend Sniper Indicator – Indicators – ProRealTime

RMI Trend Sniper: An Innovative Trading Indicator

The following is from the RealCode website – I have just copied and pasted this here.  Here is the header information that provides credit to the original programmer.

//PRC_RMI Trend Sniper
//version = 0
//26.03.24
//Iván González @ www.prorealcode.com
//Sharing ProRealTime knowledge

Here is the description of the Indicator via ProRealCode.  Please check out the website for further information regarding the indicator and how to use it.

The RMI Trend Sniper indicator is designed to identify market trends and trading signals with remarkable precision.

This tool combines the analysis of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with the Money Flow Index (MFI) and a unique approach to range-weighted moving average to offer a comprehensive perspective on market dynamics.

Configuration and Indicator Parameters

The RMI Trend Sniper allows users to adjust various parameters according to their trading needs, including:

  • RMI Length: Defines the calculation period for the RMI.
  • Positive and Negative Momentum (Positive above / Negative below): Sets thresholds to determine the strength of bullish and bearish trends.
  • Range MA Visualization (Show Range MA): Enables users to visualize the range-weighted moving average, along with color indications to quickly identify the current market trend.
Cool Shading – right?

Many of my clients ask me to convert indicators from different languages.  One of my clients came across this from ProRealCode and asked me to convert for his MulitCharts.  Pro Real code is very similar to EasyLanguage with a few exceptions.  If you are savvy in EL, then I think you could pick up PRC quite easily.  Here it is.  It is a trend following indicator.  It is one of a few that I could not find the Easylanguage equivalent so I thought I would provide it.  Play around with it and let me know what you think.  Again, all credit goes to:

//Iván González @ www.prorealcode.com
//Sharing ProRealTime knowledge
 


inputs:Length(14),//RMI Length
pmom(66),//Positive above
nmom(30);//Negative below

//-----RSI and MFI calculation-----------------------------//

vars: alpha(0),src1(0),src2(0),up(0),down(0),myrsi(0),seed(True);

alpha = 1/length;
//-----Up
src1 = maxList(close-close[1],0);
if seed then
up = average(src1,length)
else
up = alpha*src1 + (1-alpha)*up[1];

//-----Down
src2 = -1 * minList(close-close[1],0);
if seed then
down = average(src2,length)
else
down = alpha*src2 + (1-alpha)*down[1];

seed = False;

//-----Rsi
if down = 0 then
myrsi = 100
else if up = 0 then
myrsi = 0
else
myrsi = 100 - (100/(1+up/down));
vars: mfiVal(0),rsimfi(0),bpmom(False),bnmom(False),positive(0),negative(0),ema(0);
//-----MFI
mfiVal = moneyFlow(length);
//-----RsiMfi
rsimfi = (myrsi+mfiVal)/2;
//----------------------------------------------------------//
//-----Long Short Conditions--------------------------------//
ema = average(c,5);

bpmom = rsimfi[1] < pmom and rsimfi > pmom and rsimfi > nmom and (ema-ema[1])>0;
bnmom = rsimfi<nmom and (ema-ema[1])<0;

if bpmom then
begin
positive = 1;
negative = 0;
end
else if bnmom then
begin
positive = 0;
negative = 1;
end;

//----------------------------------------------------------//
//------Calculate RWMA--------------------------------------//
vars: band(0),band20(0),barRange(0),weight(0),sum(0),twVal(0),rwma(0);

band = minList(avgtruerange(30)*0.3,close*(0.3/100));
band20 = band[20]/2*8;
barRange = high-low;

weight = BarRange/summation(BarRange,20);
sum = summation(close*weight,20);
twVal = summation(weight,20);
rwma = sum/twVal;

vars: r(0),g(0),b(0);

if positive = 1 then
begin
rwma = rwma-band;
r=0;
g=188;
b=212;
end
else if negative = 1 then
begin
rwma = rwma+band;
r=255;
g=82;
b=82;
end
else
rwma = 0;

//------------------------------------------------------------//
//-----Calculate MA bands-------------------------------------//
vars: mitop(0),mibot(0);

mitop = rwma+band20;
mibot = rwma-band20;


plot1(mitop,"TOP");
plot2((mitop+mibot)/2,"TOP-BOT");
plot3((mitop+mibot)/2,"BOT-TOP");
plot4(mibot,"BOT");
if positive = 1 then
begin
plot5(rwma,"Pos",GREEN);
noPlot(plot4);
end;
if negative =1 then
begin
plot6(rwma,"Neg",RED);
noPlot(plot3);
end;
Ignore the RGB Color Codes

 

Getting Creative to Shade Between Points on the Chart

TradeStation doesn’t provide an easy method to do shading, so you have to get a little creative.  The plot TOP is of type Bar High with the thickest line possible.  The plot TOP-BOT (bottom of top) is of type Bar Low.  I like to increase transparency as much as possible to see what lies beneath the shading . The BOT-TOP (top of bottom) is Bar High and BOT is Bar Low.  Pos and Neg are of type Point.  I have colored them to be GREEN or RED.

Indicator Settings.

Happy New Year!

Dr. ChatGPT, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love AI.

Embracing AI: The Journey from Skepticism to Synergy with ChatGPT.

Using TradeStation XML output, Python and ChatGPT to create a commercial level Portfolio Optimizer.

As a young and curious child my parents would buy me RadioShack Science Fair Kits, chemistry sets, a microscope and rockets.  I learned enough chemistry to make rotten egg gas.  I grew protozoa to delve into the microscopic world.  I scared my mom and wowed my cousins with the Estes Der Big Red rocket.  But it wasn’t until one Christmas morning I opened the Digital Computer Kit.  Or course you had to put it together before you could even use it – just like the model rockets.  Hey, you got an education assembling this stuff.  Here is a picture of a glorified circuit board.

My first computer.

This really wasn’t a computer, but more of an education in circuit design, but you could get it to solve simple problems “Crossing the River”, decimal to binary, calculating the cube root and 97 other small projects.  These problems were solved by following the various wiring diagrams.  I loved how the small panels would light up with the right answers, but grew frustrated because I couldn’t get beyond the preprogrammed wiring schema.  I had all these problems I wanted to solve but could not figure out the wiring.  Of course, there were real computers out there such as the HAL 9000.  Just kidding.  I would go to the local Radio Shack and stare at the all the computers.  Hoping one day I would have one sitting on my desk.  My Dad was an aircraft electrician (avionics) in the U.S. Navy with a specialty in Inertial Navigation Systems.  He would always want to talk about switches, gyros, some dude named Georg Ohm and oscilloscopes.  I had my mind stuck in space, you know “3-D Space Battle” – the Apple II game, to listen or to learn from his vast knowledge.    A couple of years later and a paper route I had a proper 16K computer, the TI-99-4A.  During this time, I dreamed of a supercomputer that could answer all my questions and solve all my problems.  I thought the internet was the manifestation of this dream, but in fact it was the Large Language Models such as ChatGPT.

Friend or Foe

From a programmer’s perspective AI can be scary, because you might just find yourself out of a job.  From this experiment, I think we are a few years away from this possibility.  Quantum computing, whenever it arrives, might be a viable replacement, but for now I think we are okay.

The Tools You Will Need

You will need a full installation of Python along with Numpy and Pandas installed on your computer if you want ChatGPT to do some serious coding for you.  Python and its associated libraries are simply awesome.   And Chat loves to use these tools to solve a problem.  I pay $20 a month for Chat so I don’t know if you could get the same code as I did if you have the free version.  You should try before signing up.

The Project:  A Portfolio Optimizer using an Exhaustive Search Engine

About ten years ago, I collaborated with Mike Chalek to develop a parser that analyzes the XML files TradeStation generates when saving strategy performance data. Trading a trend-following system often requires significant capital to manage a large portfolio effectively. However, many smaller traders operate with limited resources and opt to trade a subset of the full portfolio.

This approach introduces a critical challenge: determining which markets to include in the subset to produce the most efficient equity curve. For instance, suppose you have the capital to trade only four markets out of a possible portfolio of twenty. How do you decide which four to include? Do you choose the markets with the highest individual profits? Or do you select the ones that provide the best profit-to-drawdown ratio?

For smaller traders, the latter approach—prioritizing the profit-to-drawdown ratio—is typically the smarter choice. This metric accounts for both returns and risk, making it essential for those who need to manage capital conservatively. By focusing on risk-adjusted performance, you can achieve a more stable equity curve and better protect your account from significant drawdowns.

I enhanced Mike’s parser by integrating an exhaustive search engine capable of evaluating every combination of N markets taken n at a time. This approach allowed for a complete analysis of all possible subsets within a portfolio. However, as the size of the portfolio increased, the number of combinations grew exponentially, making the computations increasingly intensive. For example, in a portfolio of 20 markets, sampling 4 markets at a time results in 4,845 unique combinations to evaluate.

Calculating the number of combinations.

Using the formula above you get 4,845 combinations.  If you estimate each combination to take once second, then you are talking about 21 minutes.  N/2 will produce the most combinations.  Sampling 10 out of 20 will take 51.32 hours.

  • 1 out of 20: 20 combinations
  • 2 out of 20: 190 combinations
  • 3 out of 20: 1,140 combinations
  • 4 out of 20: 4,845 combinations
  • 5 out of 20: 15,504 combinations
  • 6 out of 20: 38,760 combinations
  • 7 out of 20: 77,520 combinations
  • 8 out of 20: 125,970 combinations
  • 9 out of 20: 167,960 combinations
  • 10 out of 20: 184,756 combinations
  • 11 out of 20: 167,960 combinations

The exhaustive method is not the best way to go when trying to find the optimal portfolios across a broad search space.  This is where a genetic optimizer comes in handy.  I played around with that too.  However, for this experiment I stuck with a portfolio of eleven markets.  I used the Andromeda-like strategy that I published in my latest installment of my Easing Into EasyLanguage series.

Here is the output of the project when sampling four markets out of a total of eleven.  All this was produced with Python and its libraries and ChatGPT.

Tabular Format

The best 4-Market portfolio out of 11 possibilities.

Graphic Format

ChatGPT, Python, Matplotlib, oh my!

Step 1 – Creating an XML Parser script

You can save your strategy performance report in RINA XML format.  The ability to save in this format seems to come and go, but my latest version of TradeStation provides this capability.  The XML files are ASCII files that contain every bar of data, market and strategy properties and trades.  However, they are extremely large as each piece of data has prefix and suffix tag.

<StrategyPerformance>
<Market>
<Name>SPY</Name>
<Bars>
<Bar>
<Date>2024-12-01</Date>
<Open>450.25</Open>
<High>455.30</High>
<Low>449.85</Low>
<Close>452.10</Close>
</Bar>
<Bar>
<Date>2024-12-02</Date>
<Open>452.15</Open>
<High>458.40</High>
<Low>451.50</Low>
<Close>457.75</Close>
</Bar>
</Bars>
</Market>
<Trades>
<Trade>
<Type>Buy</Type>
<Date>2024-12-01</Date>
<Price>450.50</Price>
<Quantity>100</Quantity>
</Trade>
<Trade>
<Type>Sell</Type>
<Date>2024-12-02</Date>
<Price>457.50</Price>
<Quantity>100</Quantity>
</Trade>
</Trades>
<PerformanceMetrics>
<NetProfit>700.00</NetProfit>
<Drawdown>50.00</Drawdown>
<ProfitFactor>2.5</ProfitFactor>
</PerformanceMetrics>
</StrategyPerformance>
Small example of XML file

​Imagine the size of the XML when working with one or even five-minute bars.  

Getting ChatGPT to create an XML parser for the specific TradeStation output

  • The first thing I did was save the performance, in XML format, from a workspace in TradeStation that used an Andromeda-like strategy on eleven different daily bar charts.
  • I asked Chat to analyze the XML file that I attached to a new chat.  I started a new chart for this project.  I discovered the chat session is also known as a “workflow”.  This term emphasizes:
    • Collaboration: We work as a team to tackle challenges.
    • Iteration: We revisit and improve upon earlier steps as needed.
    • Focus: Each session builds upon the previous ones to move closer to a defined goal.
  • Once it understood the mapping of the XML, I asked Chat to extract the bar data and output it to a csv file.  And it did it without a hitch.  When I say it did it, I mean it created a Python script that I loaded into my PyScripter IDE and executed.
  • I then asked for an output of the trade-by-trade report, and it did it without a hitch.  Notice these tasks do not require much in the way of reasoning.

Getting ChatGPT to combine the bar and trade data to produce a daily equity stream.

This is where Python and its number crunching libraries came in handy.  Chat pulled in the following libraries:

  • xml.etree
  • pandas
  • tkinter
  • datetime

I love Python, but the level of abstraction with its libraries can make you dizzy.  It is not important to fully understand the panda’s data frame to utilize it.   Heck, I didn’t really know how it mapped and extracted the data from the XML file.  I prompted chat with the following:

[My prompts are bold and italicized.]

With the bar data and the trade data and the bigpointvlaue, can you create an equity curve that shows a combination of open trade equity and closed trade equity?  Remember the top part of the xml file contains bar data and the lower part contains all the trade data.

It produced a script that hung up.  I informed chat that the script hung up and that the script wasn’t working.  It found the error and fixed it.  Think about what Chat was doing. It was able to align the data so that open trades produced open trade equity and closed out trades produced closed trade equity.  Well, initially it had a small problem.    It knew what Buy and Sell meant, and the math involved with calculating the two forms of equity, open and closed.  I didn’t inform Chat of any of this.  But the equity data did not look exactly right.  It looked like the closed trade equity was being calculated improperly.

Is the Script checking for LExit and SExit to calculate when a trade closes out?

Once it figured out that the equity stream must contain open and closed trade equity and learned the terms, LExit and SExit, a new script was created that nearly replicated the equity curve from the TradeStation report.  When Chat starts creating lengthy scripts it will open a side bar window call the “Canvas” and put the script in there.  This makes it easier to copy and paste the code.  I eventually noticed that the equity curve did not include commission and slippage charges.

Please extract the slippage and commission values and deduct this amount from each trade.

At this point the workflow remembered the mapping of the XML file and was able incorporate these two values into the trade processing.  I wanted the user to be able to select multiple XML files and have the script process these files and produce the three output files, bar_data, trade_data, and equity_data.    I did have to explain that the execution costs must be applied to all the entries and exits.

I would like the user to select multiple xml files and create the data and trade and equity files incorporating the system name and market name and their naming scheme.

A new library was imported, TKinter and a file open dialog was used for the user to select all the XML files they wanted to process.  These few chores required very little interaction between Chat and me.  I thought, wow this is going to be a breeze.  I moved onto the next phase of the project by asking Chat the following:

Can you create a script that will use Tkinter to open the equity files from the prior script and allow the user to choose N out of the total files selected to create all the combined equity curves using an exhaustive search method.

I knew this was a BIG ASK!  But it swallowed this big pill without a hitch.  Maybe us programmers will be replaced sooner than later.  I wanted to fine tune the script.

Can you keep track of maximum draw down for each combination and then sort the combinations by the profit to draw down ratio. For the best combination can you create a csv file with the daily returns so i can plot them in Excel.

On a quick scan of the results, I did not initially notice that the maximum draw-down metric was not right.  So, I pushed on the fine tuning.

This works great. In the output files can we delete the path name to the csv files. For the output I would just like to have the system name and the symbol for each combination.

Script created.

I had the following error message. NameError: name ‘all_combinations’ is not defined. I also asked Chat if it can you add “Date” to the header for the combination daily files?

Many times, Chat will just recreate the part of the code that needs to be modified.  This makes copying and pasting difficult, because you have to make sure you find the right location in the code to replace.  I always ask Chat to recreate the entire script with the latest changes.  

Hey Chat, the following error message was created:  system, symbol = filename.replace(“.csv”, “”).split(“_”) ValueError: too many values to unpack (expected 2)

The error was fixed, but I finally noticed the maximum draw down calculations were not right.

I don’t think the maximum draw down metric is being calculated properly. “Andromeda-Like_@SB, Andromeda-Like_@EC, Andromeda-Like_@S, Andromeda-Like_@JY”,
PL:  92141.8499999999,
DD:  92985.59999999992,
Ratio:  0.990926014350609,144.
The draw down metric is similar to the total profit metric.
Script created.

The draw down is still not calculated properly. I think there is an error in your reasoning. I calculate draw down by iterating through the equity curve and keeping track of peaks and subsequent troughs. The largest distance between the peaks and its associated trough is the max draw down.

Script created but looked a little primitive.  So, I asked.

Is this the most efficient method?

Well, I should have kept my mouth shut.  I felt like the Python libraries would be able to do this much quicker with list comprehension or with some other magic.   And Chat agreed with me.  Script created.

The draw down is still incorrect.

Script created.

It was still wrong and instead of going back and using the original draw down script I tried to nudge Chat into the right direction.

The equity curve will have multiple peaks and multiple troughs. You will need to keep track of all of the peaks and troughs and then find the maximum distance between the sets of peaks and troughs.

Script created and was still wrong.  This is where you start going down a rabbit hole.  Chat will produce debugging script to try and figure out where the error resides.  But this is very time consuming, so I kept pushing Chat to do it right.

Each peak must be tied to its respective trough. Each distance between each respective peak and drawdown can then be measured for the largest value.

Script is wrong.

This still not working. I don’t think you are calculating the difference between peaks and subsequent troughs properly.

Script is wrong.

This is still not working. We should be able to do this in a single pass. Iterate through the daily values and track the highest level at that point in the series and then the subsequent deepest trough. Store the first difference. Continue iterating looking for a new peak and the subsequent deepest trough. Compare this value to the prior and take the largest of the two. Store this value and continue iterating.

Script from original request is generated.  Finally got back to the starting point.  What a waste of time.  I will be more careful with my suggestions.  However, the script is still wrong – arrgh!  I decide to run the debugger on the draw down function and the code is right, but the data is wrong.

The problem lies in the equity series. It should contain the combined equity for the combinations. There should be a master date and each combination populates the master date. If there is a missing date in the combinations, then the master date should copy the prior combinations combined value.

Warning message:  se obj.ffill() or obj.bfill() instead.  df_aligned = df.reindex(master_date_index).fillna(method=”ffill”).fillna(0)

Chat created some deprecated code.   This was an easy fix, I just had to replace one line of code.  However, every iteration following this still had the same damn deprecated code.

Error or warning: FutureWarning: Series.getitem treating keys as positions is deprecated. In a future version, integer keys will always be treated as labels (consistent with DataFrame behavior). To access a value by position, use ser.iloc[pos] peak = equity_series[0] # Initialize the first value as the peak

Script updated.

Can we drop the “_equity_curve” from the name of the system and symbol in the Perfomance metrics file. Will excel accept the combination names as a single column or will each symbol have its own column because of the comma. I would like for each combination in the Performance_Metrics file to occupy just one column.

Script created and this is what it should look like.  Notice it was remembering the wrong maximum draw down values I fed it earlier.  Don’t worry it was right in the script.

Combination Total Profit Max Drawdown Profit-to-Drawdown Ratio Combination Number
“Andromeda-Like_@SB, Andromeda-Like_@EC” 92141.85 92985.60 0.99 1
“Andromeda-Like_@S, Andromeda-Like_@JY” 82450.55 70530.45 1.17 2

Conclusion

I could have done the same thing ChatGPT did for me, but I wouldn’t have used the Numpy or Pandas libraries simply because I’m not familiar with them. These libraries make the exhaustive search manageable and incredibly efficient. They handle tasks much faster than pure Python alone.

To get ChatGPT to generate the code you need, being a programmer is essential. You’ll need to guide it through debugging, steer it in the right direction, and test the scripts it produces. It’s a back-and-forth process—running the script, identifying warnings or errors, and pointing out incorrect outputs. Sometimes, your programming insights and suggestions might inadvertently lead ChatGPT down a rabbit hole. Features that worked in earlier versions may stop working in subsequent iterations as modifications are applied to address earlier issues.

ChatGPT can also slow down at times, and its Canvas tool has a line limit, which can result in incomplete scripts. As a programmer, it’s easy to spot these issues—you’ll need to inform ChatGPT, and it will adjust by splitting the script into parts, some appearing in the Canvas and the rest in the chat window.

The collaboration between ChatGPT and me was powerful enough to replicate, in just one day, software that Mike Chalek and I spent weeks developing a decade ago. The original version had a cleaner GUI, but it was significantly slower compared to what we’ve achieved here.

If you’re a programmer, have Python installed with its libraries, and work with ChatGPT, the possibilities are endless. But there’s no magic—success requires thoughtful feedback and precise prompting.

Email me if you would like to have the Python scripts that accomplish the following tasks.  If you are not familiar with pandas or xml processing, the code, even being Python savvy, will look a little foreign.  No worries – it just works.

  1. XML Parser – creates data, trades and equity files in .csv format.
  2. TradeStationExhaustiveCombos – creates all the combos when sampling n out of N markets.
  3. The simple Tkinter GUI and Matplotlib graphing tool to plot the combos.

There is a total of three scripts.  Remember you will need to have Python, pandas, matplotlib already installed on your computer.  If you have any questions on how to install these just let me know.

Should you use a profit taking algorithm in your Trend Following system?

If letting profits run is key to the success of a trend following approach, is there a way to take profit without diminishing returns?

Most trend following approaches win less than 40% of the time.   So, the big profitable trades are what saves the day for this type of trading approach.  However, it is pure pain to simply sit there and watch a large profit erode, just because the criteria to exit the trade takes many days to be met.

Three methods to take a profit on a Trend Following algorithm

  1.  Simple profit objective – take a profit at a multiple of market risk.
  2.  Trail a stop (% of ATR) after a profit level (% of ATR) is achieved.
  3. Trail a stop (Donchian Channel) after a profit level (% of ATR) is achieved.

Use an input switch to determine which exit to incorporate

Inputs: initCapital(200000),rskAmt(.02),
useMoneyManagement(False),exitLen(13),
maxTradeLoss$(2500),
// the following allows the user to pick
// which exit to use
// 1: pure profit objective
// exit1ProfATRMult allows use to select
// amount of profit in terms of ATR
// 2: trailing stop 1 - the user can choose
// the treshhold amount in terms of ATR
// to be reached before trailing begins
// 3: trailing stop 2 - the user can chose
// the threshold amount in terms of ATR
// to be reached before tailing begins
whichExit(1),
exit1ProfATRMult(3),
exit2ThreshATRMult(2),exit2TrailATRMult(1),
exit3ThreshATRMult(2),exit3ChanDays(5);
Exit switch and the parameters needed for each switch.

The switch determines which exit to use later in the code.  Using inputs to allow the user to change via the interface also allows us to use an optimizer to search for the best combination of inputs.  I used MultiCharts Portfolio Trader to optimize across a basket of 21 diverse markets.  Here are the values I used for each exit switch.

MR = Market risk was defined as 2 X avgTrueRange(15).

  • Pure profit objective -Multiple from 2 to 10 in increments of 0.25.  Take profit at entryPrice + or – Profit Multiple X MR
  • Trailing stop using MR – Profit Thresh Multiple from 2 to 4 in increments of 0.1.  Trailing Stop Multiple from 1 to 4 in increments of 0.1.
  • Trailing stop using MR and Donchian Channel – Profit Thresh Multiple from 2 to 4 in increments of 0.1.  Donchian length from 3 to 10 days.

Complete strategy code incorporating exit switch.  This code is from Michael Covel’s 2005 Trend Following book (Covel, Michael. Trend Following: How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets. FT Press, 2005.)  This strategy is highlighted in my latest installment in my Easing into EasyLanguage series – Trend Following edition.


vars:buyLevel(0),shortLevel(0),longExit(0),shortExit(0);

Inputs: initCapital(200000),rskAmt(.02),
useMoneyManagement(False),exitLen(13),
maxTradeLoss$(2500),whichExit(1),
exit1ProfATRMult(3),
exit2ThreshATRMult(2),exit2TrailATRMult(1),
exit3ThreshATRMult(2),exit3ChanDays(5);

Vars: marketRisk(0), workingCapital(0),
marketRisk1(0),marketRisk2(0),
numContracts1(0),numContracts2(0);

//Reinvest profits? - uncomment the first line and comment out the second
//workingCapital = Portfolio_Equity-Portfolio_OpenPositionProfit;
workingCapital = initCapital;


buyLevel = highest(High,89) + minMove/priceScale;
shortLevel = lowest(Low,89) - minMove/priceScale;
longExit = lowest(Low,exitLen) - minMove/priceScale;
shortExit = highest(High,exitLen) + minMove/priceScale;

marketRisk = avgTrueRange(15)*2*BigPointValue;
marketRisk1 =(buyLevel - longExit)*BigPointValue;
marketRisk2 =(shortExit - shortLevel)*BigPointValue;
marketRisk1 = minList(marketRisk,marketRisk1);
marketRisk2 = minList(marketRisk,marketRisk2);

numContracts1 = (workingCapital * rskAmt) /marketRisk1;
numContracts2 = (workingCapital * rskAmt) /marketRisk2;

if not(useMoneyManagement) then
begin
numContracts1 = 1;
numContracts2 =1;
end;

numContracts1 = maxList(numContracts1,intPortion(numContracts1)); {Round down to the nearest whole number}
numContracts2 = MaxList(numContracts2,intPortion(numContracts1));


if c < buyLevel then buy numContracts1 contracts next bar at buyLevel stop;
if c > shortLevel then Sellshort numContracts2 contracts next bar at shortLevel stop;

buytocover next bar at shortExit stop;
Sell next bar at longExit stop;

vars: marketRiskPoints(0);
marketRiskPoints = marketRisk/bigPointValue;
if marketPosition = 1 then
begin
if whichExit = 1 then
sell("Lxit-1") next bar at entryPrice + exit1ProfATRMult * marketRiskPoints limit;
if whichExit = 2 then
if maxcontractprofit > (exit2ThreshATRMult * marketRiskPoints ) * bigPointValue then
sell("Lxit-2") next bar at entryPrice + maxContractProfit/bigPointValue - exit2TrailATRMult*marketRiskPoints stop;
if whichExit = 3 then
if maxcontractprofit > (exit3ThreshATRMult * marketRiskPoints ) * bigPointValue then
sell("Lxit-3") next bar at lowest(l,exit3ChanDays) stop;
end;

if marketPosition = -1 then
begin
if whichExit = 1 then
buyToCover("Sxit-1") next bar at entryPrice - exit1ProfATRMult * marketRiskPoints limit;
if whichExit = 2 then
if maxcontractprofit > (exit2ThreshATRMult * marketRiskPoints ) * bigPointValue then
buyToCover("Sxit-2") next bar at entryPrice - maxContractProfit/bigPointValue + exit2TrailATRMult*marketRiskPoints stop;
if whichExit = 3 then
if maxcontractprofit > (exit3ThreshATRMult * marketRiskPoints ) * bigPointValue then
buyToCover("Sxit-3") next bar at highest(h,exit3ChanDays) stop;
end;

setStopLoss(maxTradeLoss$);

Here’s the fun code from the complete listing.

vars: marketRiskPoints(0);
marketRiskPoints = marketRisk/bigPointValue;
if marketPosition = 1 then
begin
if whichExit = 1 then
sell("Lxit-1") next bar at entryPrice + exit1ProfATRMult * marketRiskPoints limit;
if whichExit = 2 then
if maxContractProfit > (exit2ThreshATRMult * marketRiskPoints ) * bigPointValue then
sell("Lxit-2") next bar at entryPrice + maxContractProfit/bigPointValue - exit2TrailATRMult*marketRiskPoints stop;
if whichExit = 3 then
if maxContractProfit > (exit3ThreshATRMult * marketRiskPoints ) * bigPointValue then
sell("Lxit-3") next bar at lowest(l,exit3ChanDays) stop;
end;

if marketPosition = -1 then
begin
if whichExit = 1 then
buyToCover("Sxit-1") next bar at entryPrice - exit1ProfATRMult * marketRiskPoints limit;
if whichExit = 2 then
if maxContractProfit > (exit2ThreshATRMult * marketRiskPoints ) * bigPointValue then
buyToCover("Sxit-2") next bar at entryPrice - maxContractProfit/bigPointValue + exit2TrailATRMult*marketRiskPoints stop;
if whichExit = 3 then
if maxContractProfit > (exit3ThreshATRMult * marketRiskPoints ) * bigPointValue then
buyToCover("Sxit-3") next bar at highest(h,exit3ChanDays) stop;
end;

The first exit is rather simple – just get out on a limit order at a nice profit level.  The second and third exit mechanisms are a little more complicated.  The key variable in the code is the maxContractProfit keyword.  This value stores the highest level, from a long side perspective, reached during the life of the trade.  If max profit exceeds the exit2ThreshATRMult, then trail the apex by exit2TrailATRMult.  Let’s take a look at the math from a long side trade.

if maxContractProfit > (exit2ThreshATRMult * marketRiskPoints ) * bigPointValue

Since maxContractProfit is in dollar you must convert the exit2ThreshATRMult X marketRiskPoints into dollars as well.  If you review the full code listing you will see that I convert the dollar value, marketRisk, into points and store the value in marketRiskPoints.  The conversion to dollars is accomplished by multiplying the product by bigPointValue.

sell("Lxit-2") next bar at
entryPrice + maxContractProfit / bigPointValue - exit2TrailATRMult * marketRiskPoints stop;

I know this looks complicated, so let’s break it down.  Once I exceed a certain profit level, I calculate a trailing stop at the entryPrice plus the apex in price during the trade (maxContractProfit / bigPointValue) minus the exit2TrailATRMult X marketRiskPoints. If the price of the market keeps rising, so will the trailing stop.  That last statement is not necessarily true, since the trailing stop is based on market volatility in terms of the ATR.  If the market rises a slight amount, and the ATR increases more dramatically, then the trailing stop could actually move down.  This might be what you want.  Give the market more room in a noisier market.  What could you do to ratchet this stop?  Mind your dollars and your points in your calculations.

The third exit uses the same profit trigger, but simply installs an exit based on a shorter term Donchian channel.  This is a trailing stop too, but it utilizes a chart point to help define the exit price.

Results of the three exits

Exit 1 – Pure Profit Objective

Take a profit on a limit order once profit reaches a multiple of market risk aka 2 X ATR(15).

Pure profit object. Profit in terms of ATR or perceived market risk.

The profit objective that proved to be the best was using a multiple of 7.  A multiple of 10 basically negates the profit objective.   With this system several profit objective multiples seemed to work.

Exit – 2 – Profit Threshold and Trailing Stop in terms of ATR or market risk

Trail a stop a multiple of ATR after a multiple of ATR in profit is reached.

Trailing Stop using ATR
3-D view of parameters
3D view of parameter pairs

This strategy liked 3 multiples of ATR of profit before trailing and applying a multiple of 1.3 ATR as a stop.

Like I said in the video, watch out for 1.3 as you trailing amount multiple as it seems to be on a mountain ridge.

Exit – 3 – Profit Threshold in terms of ATR or market risk and a Donchain Channel trailing stop

Trail a stop using a Donchian Channel after a multiple of ATR in profit is reached.  Here was a profit level is reached, incorporate a tailing stop at the lowest low or the highest high of N days back.

Using Donchian Channel as trailing stop.
3-D view of parameters
3D view of parameters for Exit 3.

Conclusion

The core strategy is just an 89-day Donchian Channel for entry and a 13-Day Donchian Channel for exit.  The existing exit is a trailing exit and after I wrote this lengthy post, I started to think that a different strategy might be more appropriate.  However, as you can see from the contour charts, using a trailing stop that is closer than a 13-day Donchian might be more productive.   From this analysis you would be led to believe the ATR based profit and exit triggers (Exit #2) is superior.  But this may not be the case for all strategies.  I will leave this up to you to decide.  Here is the benchmark performance analysis with just the core logic.

Core logic results.

If you like this type of explanation and code, make sure you check at my latest book at amazon.com.  Easing into EasyLanguage – Trend Following Edition.

Buy in November, Sell in May Strategy Framework

Thanks to Jeff Swanson for the basis of this post

I like to post something educational at least once a month.  Sometimes, it’s difficult to come up with stuff to write about.  Jeff really got me thinking with his Buy November… post.  Check out his post “Riding the Market Waves:  How to Surf Seasonal Trends to Trading Success.”  Hopefully you have read his post and now have returned.  As you know, the gist of his post was to buy in November and sell in May.  Jeff was gracious enough to provide analysis, source and suggestions for improvement for this base strategy.

Why Change Jeff’s Code to a Framework?

I found Jeff’s post most intriguing, so the first think I start thinking about is how could I optimize the buy and sell months, a max loss, the three entry filters that he provided and in addition add a sell short option.  If you have read my books, you know I like to develop frameworks for further research when I program an algorithm or strategy.  Here is how I developed the framework:

  1. Optimize the entry month from January to December or 1 to 12.
  2. Optimize the exit month from January to December or 1 to 12.
  3. Optimize to go long or go short or 1 to 2 (to go short any number other than 1 really).
input: startMonth(11),endMonth(5),
longOrShort(1),


currentMonth = Month(Date of tomorrow);
If currentMonth = startMonth and mp = 0 and entriesThisMonth = 0 Then
begin
// a trade can only occur if canBuy is True - start month is active as
// long as the filtering allows it. Until the filter is in alignment
// keep looking for a trading during the ENTIRE startMonth
if longOrShort = 1 and canBuy then
entriesThisMonth = 1;
if longOrShort = 1 and canBuy then
buy("Buy Month") iShares contracts next bar at market;
if longOrShort <> 1 and canShort then
sellShort("Short Month") iShares contracts next bar at market;
if longOrShort = -1 and canShort then
entriesThisMonth = 1;
end;

if CurrentMonth = endMonth Then
begin
if longOrShort = 1 then
sell("L-xit Month") currentShares contracts next bar at market
else
buyToCover("S-xit Month") currentShares contracts next bar at market;
end;

if mp = 1 then
sell("l-xitMM") next bar at entryPrice - maxTradeRisk/bigPointValue stop;
if mp =-1 then
buyToCover("s-xitMM") next bar at entryPrice + maxTradeRisk/bigPointValue stop;
Snippet of the bones with extra flavor to enter and exit on certain months

You can see that I have provided the three inputs:

  1. startMonth
  2. endMonth
  3. longOrShort

I get the currentMonth by peeking at the date of tomorrow and passing this date to the month function.  If tomorrow is the first day of the month that I want to enter a long or short and the current market position (mp), and entriesThisMonth = 0, then a long or short position will be initiated.  If the filters I describe a little later allow it, I know that I will be executing a trade tomorrow, and I can go ahead assign a 1 to entries this month.  Why do I do this?  Just wait and you will see.   Long entries depend on the variable longOrShort being equal to 1 and the toggle canBuy set to True.  What is canBuy.  Just wait and you will see.  The sell short is similar, but conversely longOrShort needs to not equal 1.  In addition, canShort needs to be true too.

If the currentMonth = endMonth, then based on the market position a sell or a buy to cover will be executed.

How to add filters to Determine canBuy and canShort

inputs: 
useMACDFilter(1), MACDFast(9), MACDSlow(26), MACDAvgLen(9), MACDLevel(0),
useMAFilter(0), MALength(30),
useRSIFilter(0), RSILength(14), RSILevel(50)

RSIVal = rsi(close,RSILength);
MAVal = xAverage(close,MALength);
MACDVal = macd(close,MACDFast,MACDSlow);
MACDAvg = xAverage(MACDVal,MACDAvgLen);

if useMACDFilter = 1 then
begin
canBuy = MACDVal > MACDLevel;
canShort = MACDVal < MACDLevel;
end;

if useMAFilter = 1 then
begin
canBuy = close > MAVal and canBuy;
canShort = close < MAVal and canShort;
end;

if useRSIFilter = 1 then
begin
canBuy = RSIVal > RSILevel and canBuy;
canShort = RSIVal < RSILevel and canShort;
end;
Calculate Filter Components and then test them

You cannot optimize a True to False toggle, but you can optimize 0 for off and 1 for on.  Here the useFilterName inputs are initially set to 0 or off.  Each filter indicator has respective inputs so that the filters can be calculated with the user’s input.  If the filters are equal to one, then a test to turn canBuy and canShort to on or off is laid out in the code.  Each test depends on either the state of price compared to the indicator value, or the indicator’s relationship to a user defined level or value.

Will this code test all the combination of the filters?

Yes!  F1 is Filter 1 and F2 is Filter 2 and F3 is Filter 3.  By optimizing each filter from 0 to 1, you will span this search space.

  • F1 = On; F2 = Off; F3 = Off
  • F1 = On; F2 = On; F3 = Off
  • F1 = On; F2 = On; F3 = On
  • F1 = Off; F2 = On; F3 = Off
  • F1 = Off; F2 = On; F3 = On
  • F1 = Off; F2 = Off: F3 = On
  • F1 = On; F2 = Off; F3 = On

You will notice I initially set canBuy and canShort to True and then turn them off if an offending filter occurs.  Notice how I AND the results for Filter 2 and Filter 3 with canBuy or canShort.  Doing this allows me to cascade the filter combinations.  I do want to test when all filters are in alignment.  In other words, they must all be True to initiate a position.

Should the Filters be Active During the Entire Entry Month?

What if the first day of the month arrives and you can’t initiate a trade due to a conflict of one of the filters.  Should we allow a trade later in the entry month if the filters align properly?  If we are testing 25 years of history and allow for entry later on in the month, we could definitely generate as close to 25 trades as possible.   This line of code keeps the potential of a trade open for the entire month.


// only set entriesThisMonth to true
// when all the stars align - might enter a long
// trade on the last day of the month

if longOrShort = 1 and canBuy then
entriesThisMonth = 1;
Keep the entire start month active

Some Tricky Code

I wanted to allow a money management exit on a contract basis.  I had to devise some code that would not allow me to reenter the startMonth if I got stopped out prematurely in the startMonth (the same month as entry.)

if entriesThisMonth = 1 and monthOfTomorrow <> startMonth then
entriesThisMonth = 0;
This code resets entriesThisMonth

If a position is initiated, I know entriesThisMonth will be set to one.  If I enter into another month that is not the startMonth then entriesThisMonth is set to 0.  This prevents reentry in case we get stopped out in the same month we initially enter a position.  In other words, entriesThisMonth stays one until a new month is observed.  And we can’t enter when entriesThisMonth is equal to one.

Full Code

input: startMonth(11),endMonth(5),
longOrShort(1),
useMACDFilter(1),MACDFast(9),MACDSlow(26),MACDAvgLen(9),MACDLevel(0),
useMAFilter(0),MALength(30),
useRSIFilter(0),RSILength(14),RSILevel(50),
startAccountSize(100000),
marketRiskLen(30),
riskPerTrade(5000),
maxTradeRisk(5000);

vars: currentMonth(0),mp(0),iShares(0),entriesThisMonth(0),monthOfTomorrow(0),
RSIVal(0),MAVal(0),MACDVal(0),MACDAvg(0),canBuy(True),canShort(True);

mp = marketPosition;
iShares = riskPerTrade/bigPointValue/avgTrueRange(marketRiskLen);

RSIVal = rsi(close,RSILength);
MAVal = xAverage(close,MALength);
MACDVal = macd(close,MACDFast,MACDSlow);
MACDAvg = xAverage(MACDVal,MACDAvgLen);

canBuy = True;
canShort = True;

mp = marketPosition;

monthOfTomorrow = month(date of tomorrow);

if entriesThisMonth = 1 and monthOfTomorrow <> startMonth then
entriesThisMonth = 0;

if useMACDFilter = 1 then
begin
canBuy = MACDVal > MACDLevel;
canShort = MACDVal < MACDLevel;
end;

if useMAFilter = 1 then
begin
canBuy = close > MAVal and canBuy;
canShort = close < MAVal and canShort;
end;

if useRSIFilter = 1 then
begin
canBuy = RSIVal > RSILevel and canBuy;
canShort = RSIVal < RSILevel and canShort;
end;

currentMonth = Month(Date of tomorrow);
//print(d," ",currentMonth," ",startMonth," ",entriesThisMonth);
If currentMonth = startMonth and mp = 0 and entriesThisMonth = 0 Then
begin
// print(d," ",currentMonth," ",canBuy);
if longOrShort = 1 and canBuy then
entriesThisMonth = 1;
if longOrShort = 1 and canBuy then
buy("Buy Month") iShares contracts next bar at market;
if longOrShort <> 1 and canShort then
sellShort("Short Month") iShares contracts next bar at market;
if longOrShort = -1 and canShort then
entriesThisMonth = 1;
end;

if CurrentMonth = endMonth Then
begin
if longOrShort = 1 then
sell("L-xit Month") currentShares contracts next bar at market
else
buyToCover("S-xit Month") currentShares contracts next bar at market;
end;

if mp = 1 then
sell("l-xitMM") next bar at entryPrice - maxTradeRisk/bigPointValue stop;
if mp =-1 then
buyToCover("s-xitMM") next bar at entryPrice + maxTradeRisk/bigPointValue stop;
Complete Code Framework

Here is the best equity curve I uncovered when I optimized the startMonth from 1 to 12 and the endMonth from 1 to 12 and the maxTradeRisk per contract and the three entry filters.  Entering in November when the moving average filter aligns and exiting on the first day of August and risking $5,500 per contract produced this equity curve.

Enter November get out the beginning of August

The test returned what would basically be similar to a buy and hold scenario; the difference being you only hold the trade between seven and eight months of the year and risk only $5,500 per contract.  If you get stopped out, you wait until November to get back in – whenever the moving average filter allows.  Net profit to draw down ratio is north of 4.0.

Last Comment

If I optimize from 1 to 12 for the start month and 1 to 12 for end month, will this not cause an error?  What if the two values equal?  I mean I can’t enter and exit in the same month – a one-day trade?  You could make the code smarter, but it doesn’t matter.  As a user you will know better than to use the same number and the optimizer will test the combination with the same number, but the results will fall off the table.   In this case, error trapping doesn’t prevent a necessarily unwanted or dangerous scenario.

Prune Your Trend Following Algorithm

Multiple trading decisions based on “logic” may not add to the bottom line

In this post, I will present a trend following system that uses four exit techniques.  These techniques are based on experience and also logic.  The problem with using multiple exit techniques is that it is difficult to see the synergy that is generated from all the moving parts.  Pruning your algorithm may help cut down on invisible redundancy and opportunities to over curve fit.  The trading strategy I will be presenting will use a very popular entry technique overlaid with trade risk compression.

Entry logic

Long:

Criteria #1:  Penetration of the closing price above an 85 day (closing prices) and 1.5X standard deviation-based Bollinger Band.

Criteria #2:  The mid-band or moving average must be increasing for the past three consecutive days.

Criteria #3: The trade risk (1.5X standard deviation) must be less than 3 X average true range for the past twenty days and also must be less than $4,500.

Risk is initially defined by the standard deviation of the market but is then compared to $4,500. If the trade risk is less than $4,500, then a trade is entered. I am allowing the market movement to define risk, but I am putting a ceiling on it if necessary.

Short:

Criteria #1:  Penetration of the closing price below an 85 day (closing prices) and 1.5X standard deviation-based Bollinger Band.

Criteria #2:  The mid-band or moving average must be decreasing for the past three consecutive days.

Criteria #3:  Same as criteria #3 on the long side

Exit Logic

Exit #1:  Like any Bollinger Band strategy, the mid band or moving average is the initial exit point.  This exit must be included in this particular strategy, because it allows exits at profitable levels and works synergistically with the entry technique.

Exit #2:  Fixed $ stop loss ($3,000)

Exit #3:  The mid-band must be decreasing for three consecutive days and today’s close must be below the entry price.

Exit #4:  Todays true range must be greater than 3X average true range for the past twenty days, and today’s close is below yesterday’s, and yesterday’s close must be below the prior days.

Here is the logic of exits #2 through exit #4.  With longer term trend following system, risk can increase quickly during a trade and capping the maximum loss to $3,000 can help in extreme situations.  If the mid-band starts to move down for three consecutive days and the trade is underwater, then the trade probably should be aborted.  If you have a very wide bar and the market has closed twice against the trade, there is a good chance the trade should be aborted.

Short exits use the same logic but in reverse.  The close must close below the midband, or a $3,000 maximum loss, or three bars where each moving average is greater than the one before, or a wide bar and two consecutive up closes.

Here is the logic in PowerLanguage/EasyLanguage that includes the which exit seletor.

[LegacyColorValue = true]; 
Inputs: maxEntryRisk$(4500),maxNATRLossMult(3),maxTradeLoss$(3000),
indicLen(85),numStdDevs(1.5),highVolMult(3),whichExit(7);

Vars: upperBand(0), lowerBand(0),slopeUp(False),slopeDn(False),
largeAtr(0),sma(0),
initialRisk(0),tradeRisk(0),
longLoss(0),shortLoss(0),permString("");

upperBand = bollingerBand(close,indicLen,numStdDevs);
lowerBand = bollingerBand(close,indicLen,-numStdDevs);
largeATR = highVolMult*(AvgTrueRange(20));

sma = average(close,indicLen);

slopeUp = sma>sma[1] and sma[1]>sma[2] and sma[2]>sma[3];
slopeDn = sma<sma[1] and sma[1]<sma[2] and sma[2]<sma[3];

initialRisk = AvgTrueRange(20);
largeATR = highVolMult * initialRisk;
tradeRisk = (upperBand - sma);
// 3 objects in our permutations
// exit 1, exit 2, exit 3
// perm # exit #
// 1 1
// 2 1,2
// 3 1,3
// 4 2
// 5 2,3
// 6 3
// 7 1,2,3

if whichExit = 1 then permString = "1";
if whichExit = 2 then permString = "1,2";
if whichExit = 3 then permString = "1,3";
if whichExit = 4 then permString = "2";
if whichExit = 5 then permString = "2,3";
if whichExit = 6 then permString = "3";
if whichExit = 7 then permString = "1,2,3";



{Long Entry:}
If (MarketPosition = 0) and
Close crosses above upperBand and slopeUp and
(tradeRisk < initialRisk*maxNATRLossMult and tradeRisk<maxEntryRisk$/bigPointValue) then
begin
Buy ("LE") Next Bar at Market;
End;


{Short Entry:}

If (MarketPosition = 0) and slopeDn and
Close crosses below lowerBand and
(tradeRisk < initialRisk*maxNATRLossMult and tradeRisk<maxEntryRisk$/bigPointValue) then
begin
Sell Short ("SE") Next Bar at Market;
End;


{Long Exits:}

if marketPosition = 1 Then
Begin
longLoss = initialRisk * maxNATRLossMult;
longLoss = minList(longLoss,maxTradeLoss$/bigPointValue);

If Close < sma then
Sell ("LX Stop") Next Bar at Market;;

if inStr(permString,"1") > 0 then
sell("LX MaxL") next bar at entryPrice - longLoss stop;

if inStr(permString,"2") > 0 then
If sma < sma[1] and sma[1] < sma[2] and sma[2] < sma[3] and close < entryPrice then
Sell ("LX MA") Next Bar at Market;
if inStr(permString,"3") > 0 then
If TrueRange > largeATR and close < close[1] and close[1] < close[2] then
Sell ("LX ATR") Next Bar at Market;
end;

{Short Exit:}

If (MarketPosition = -1) Then
Begin

shortLoss = initialRisk * maxNATRLossMult;
shortLoss = minList(shortLoss,maxTradeLoss$/bigPointValue);
if Close > sma then
Buy to Cover ("SX Stop") Next Bar at Market;

if inStr(permString,"1") > 0 then
buyToCover("SX MaxL") next bar at entryPrice + shortLoss stop;

if inStr(permString,"2") > 0 then
If sma > sma[1] and sma[1] > sma[2] and sma[2] > sma[3] and close > entryPrice then
Buy to Cover ("SX MA") Next Bar at Market;
if inStr(permString,"3") > 0 then
If TrueRange > largeAtr and close > close[1] and close[1] > close[2] then
Buy to Cover ("SX ATR") Next Bar at Market;
end;
Trend following with exit selector

Please note that I modified the code from my original by forcing the close to cross above or below the Bollinger Bands.  There is a slight chance that one of the exits could get you out of a trade outside of the bands, and this could potentially cause and automatic re-entry in the same direction at the same price.  Forcing a crossing, makes sure the market is currently within the bands’ boundaries.

This code has an input that will allow the user to select which combination of exits to use.

Since we have three exits, and we want to evaluate all the combinations of each exit separately, taken two of the exits and finally all the exits, we will need to rely on a combinatorial table.    In long form, here are the combinations:

3 objects in our combinations of exit 1, exit 2, exit 3

  • one  – 1
  • two  – 1,2
  • three  –  1,3
  • four –  2
  • five  – 2,3
  • six –  3
  • seven  –  1,2,3

There are a total of seven different combinations. Given the small set, we can effectively hard-code this using string manipulation to create a combinatorial table. For larger sets, you may find my post on the Pattern Smasher beneficial. A robust programming language like Easy/PowerLanguage offers extensive libraries for string manipulation. The inStr string function, for instance, identifies the starting position of a substring within a larger string. When keyed to the whichExit input, I can dynamically recreate the various combinations using string values.

  1. if whichExit = 1 then permString = “1”
  2. if whichExit = 2 then permString= “1,2”
  3. if whichExit = 3 then permString = “1,2,3”
  4.  etc…

As I optimize from one to seven, permString will dynamically change its value, representing different rows in the table. For my exit logic, I simply check if the enumerated string value corresponding to each exit is present within the string.

	if inStr(permString,"1") > 0 then
sell("LX MaxL") next bar at entryPrice - longLoss stop;
if inStr(permString,"2") > 0 then
If sma < sma[1] and sma[1] < sma[2] and sma[2] < sma[3] and close < entryPrice then
Sell ("LX MA") Next Bar at Market;
if inStr(permString,"3") > 0 then
If TrueRange > largeATR and close < close[1] and close[1] < close[2] then
Sell ("LX ATR") Next Bar at Market;
Using inStr to see if the current whichExit input applies

When permString = “1,2,3” then all exits are used.  If permString = “1,2”, then only the first two exits are utilized.  Now all we need to do is optimize whichExit from 1 to 7.  Let’s see what happens:

Combination of all three exits

The best combination of exits was “3”.  Remember 3 is the permString  that = “1,3” – this combination includes the money management loss exit, and the wide bar against position exit.  It only slightly improved overall profitability instead of using all the exits – combo #7.  In reality, just using the max loss stop wouldn’t be a bad way to go either.  Occam uses his razor to shave away unnecessary complexities again!

If you like this code, you should check out the Summer Special at my digital store. I showcase over ten more trend-following algorithms with different entry and exit logic constructs.  These other algorithms are derived from the best Trend Following “Masters” of the twentieth century.  IMHO!

Here is a video you can watch that goes over the core of this trading strategy.

 

Multi-Agents and the Power of the Series Function

Jeff Swanson wrote a great post on multi-agent trading a few years ago.

Jeff created a simple mean reversion system and then created two derivatives that culminated in three systems (or three agents.)  Using Murray Ruggiero’s Equity Curve Feedback, he was able to poll which system was doing the best, synthetically, and execute the strategy that showed the best performance.   If memory serves, picking the highflyer turned out to be the way to go.  Jeff had just touched the surface of Murray’s tool. but it definitely did the job.  Murray contracted me to fix some problems with the ECF tool and I did, but the tool is just way too cumbersome, resource hungry and requires a somewhat higher level of EasyLanguage knowledge to be universally applicable.  I was doing similar research in the area of polling multiple strategies and picking the best, just like Jeff did, and just executing that one system, when I thought about this post.  Traders do this all the time.  They have multiple strategies in the pipeline and monitor the performance and if one is head and shoulders better than what they are currently trading, they will switch systems.  This was one of the side benefits of the ECF tool.

What is an agent

An agent is any trading system that produces a positive expectancy.  Using multiple agents in a polling process allows a trader to go with the strategy that is currently performing the best.  This sounds reasonable, but there are pitfalls.  You could always be behind the curve – picking the best system right before it has its draw down.  Agents can be similar, or they can be totally different types of systems.  I am going to follow in Jeff’s footsteps and create three agents with the same DNA.  Here is what I call the AgentSpawner strategy.

inputs: movAvgLen(200),numDownDays(3),numDaysInTrade(2),stopLoss(5000);


value1 = countIf(c < c[1],numDownDays);
if c > average(c,movAvgLen) and value1 = numDownDays then
buy next bar at open;
if barsSinceEntry = numDaysInTrade then
sell next bar at open;
if marketPosition = 1 then sell next bar at entryPrice - stopLoss/bigPointValue stop;
Use this template and optimize inputs to spawn new agents

This code trades in the direction of the longer-term moving average and waits for a pull back on N consecutive down closes.  I am using the neat function countIF. This function counts the number of times the conditional test occurs in the last N bars.  If I want to know the number of times I have had a down close in the last 3 days, I can use this function like this.

Value1 = countIF(c<c[1],3);

// this is what the function doues
// 1.) todays close < yesterdays close + 1
// 2.) yesterdays close < prior days close + 2
// 3.) day before yesterdays close < prior cays close + 3

// If value3 = 3 then I know I had three conscecutive down
// closes. If value3 is less than three then I did not.

If the close is greater than the longer-term moving average and I have N consecutive down closings, then I buy the next bar at the open.  I use a wide protective stop and get out after X bars since entry.  Remember EasyLanguage does not count the day of entry in its barsSinceEntry calculation.  I am not using the built-in setStopLoss as I don’t want to get stopped out on the day of entry.  In real trading, you may want to do this, but for testing purposes my tracking algorithm was not this sophisticated.  I spawned three agents with the following properties.

	Case 1: //Agent 1
movAvgLen = 200;
numDownDays = 2;
numDaysInTrade = 15;
stopLoss = 7500;
Case 2: //Agent 2
movAvgLen = 140;
numDownDays = 3;
numDaysInTrade = 9;
stopLoss = 2500;
Case 3: //Agent 3
movAvgLen = 160;
numDownDays = 3;
numDaysInTrade = 15;
stopLoss = 2500;

System Tracking Algorithm

This is why I love copy-paste programming.  This can be difficult if you don’t know your EasyLanguage or how TradeStation processes the bars of data.  Get educated by checking my books out at amazon.com – that is if you have not already.  This code is a very simplistic approach for keeping track of a system’s trades and its equity.

value4 = countIf(c<c[1],4);
value3 = countIf(c<c[1],3);
value2 = countIf(c<c[1],2);
//Agent #1 tracking algorithm
if sys1Signal<> 1 and c[1] > average(c[1],160) and value2[1] = 2 then
begin
sys1Signal = 1;
sys1BarCount = -1;
sys1TradePrice = open;
sys1LExit = open - 7500/bigPointValue;
end;
if sys1Signal = 1 then
begin
sys1BarCount+=1;
if low < sys1LExit and sys1BarCount > 0 then
begin
sys1TradePrice = sys1LExit;
sys1Signal = 0;
end;
if sys1BarCount = 16 and sys1Signal = 1 then
begin
sys1TradePrice = open;
sys1Signal = 0;
end;
end;
Yes, this looks a little hairy, but it really is simple stuff

I am pretending to be TradeStation here.  First, I need to test to see if Agent#1 entered into a long position.  If the close of yesterday is greater than the moving average, inclusive of yesterdays close, and there has been two consecutive down closes, then I know a trade should have been entered on todays open.  EasyLanguage’s next bar paardigm cannot be utilized here.  Remember I am not generating signals, I am just seeing if today’s (not tomorrows or the next bars) trading action triggered a signal and if so, I need to determine the entry/exit price.  I am gathering this information so I can feed it into a series function.  If a trade is triggered, I set four variables:

  1. sys1Signal – 1 for long, -1 for short, and 0 for flat.
  2. sys1BarCount – set to a -1 because I immediately increment.
  3. sys1TradePrice – at what price did I enter or exit
  4. sys1LExit – set this to our stop loss level

If I am theoretically long, remember we are just tracking here, then I need to test, starting with the following day, if the low of the day is below our stop loss level and if it is I need to reset two variables:

  1. sys1TradePrice – where did I get out
  2. sys1Signal – set to 0 for a flat position

If not stopped out, then I start counting the number of bars sys1Signal is equal to 1.  If sys1BarCount = 16, then I get out at the open by resetting the following variables:

  1. sys1TradePrice = open
  2. sys1Signal = 0

If you look back at the properties for Agent#1 you will see I get out after 15 days, not 16.  Here is where the next bar paradigm can make it confusing.  The AgentSpawner strategy says to sell next bar at open when barsSinceEntry = 15.  The next bar after 15 is 16, so we store the open of the 16th bar as our trade price.

Now copy and paste the code into a nice editor such as NotePad++ or NotePad and replace the string sys1 with sys2.  Copy the code from NotePad++ into your EasyLanguage editor.  Now back to NotePad++ and replace sys2 with sys3.  Copy that code into the EL edition too.  Now all you need to do is change the different properties for each agent and you will have three tracking modules.

The Power of the EasyLanguage Series Function

The vanilla version of EasyLanguage has object-oriented nuances that you may not see right off the bat.  In my opinion, a series function is like a class.  Before I get started, let me explain what I mean by series.  All EasyLanguage function are of three types.

  1. simple – like a Bollinger band calculation
  2. series – like we are talking about here
  3. auto-detect – the interpreter/compiler decides

The series function has a memory for the variables that are used within the function.  Take a look at this.

input: funcID(string),seed(numericSimple);

vars: count(0);
if barNumber = 1 then // on first bar seed count
count = seed;
count = count+1;
print(d," ",funcID," ", count);
SeriesFunctionTest = count;
Count is class-like member

On the first bar of the function call – remember it will be called on each bar in the chart, the function variable count is assigned seed. Seed will be ignored on subsequent bars.   What makes this magical is that no matter how many times you call the function on the same bar it remembers the internal variables on somewhat of a hierarchical basis (each call remembers its own stuff.)  It like a class in that it gets instantiated on the very first call.  Meaning if you call it three times on the first bar of the data, you will have three distinct internal variable memories.  Take a look at my sandbox function driver and its output.

result = SeriesFunctionTest("Call #1",50);
result = SeriesFunctionTest("Call #2",5);
result = SeriesFunctionTest("Call #3",100);

//outPut

1170407.00 Call #1 51.00 //first bar 51 = seed + count + 1
1170407.00 Call #2 6.00 //first bar 6 = seed + count + 1
1170407.00 Call #3 101.00 //first bar 101 = seed + count + 1

1170410.00 Call #1 52.00 // second bar it remembered count was 51
1170410.00 Call #2 7.00 // second bar it remembered count was 6
1170410.00 Call #3 102.00 // second bar it remembered count was 101

1170411.00 Call #1 53.00 // you have a unique function values that
1170411.00 Call #2 8.00 // were instantiated on the first bar
1170411.00 Call #3 103.00 // of the test.

1170412.00 Call #1 54.00
1170412.00 Call #2 9.00
1170412.00 Call #3 104.00
Series functions rock - but they are resource hungry

Why is this important?

I have created a PLSimulator function that keeps track of the three agent’s performance.  I need the profit or loss to stick with each function and then also add or subtract from it.  This is a neat function.  Remember if you like this stuff buy my books at Amazon.com.

//ProfitLoss Simulator
Inputs: signal(numericseries),tradePrice(numericSimple),orderType(numericSimple),useOte(Truefalse);
Vars:dmode(0),LEPrice(-99999),LXPrice(-99999),SEPrice(-99999),SXPrice(-99999);
vars: GProfit(0),OpenProfit(0);
vars: modTradePrice(0);

vars: printOutTrades(True);

modTradePrice = tradePrice;

if orderType = 1 then // stop order
begin
if signal = 1 or (signal = 0 and signal[1] = - 1) then
modTradePrice = maxList(open,modTradePrice);
if signal = -1 or (signal = 0 and signal[1] = 1) then
modTradePrice = minList(open,modTradePrice);
end;

if orderType = 2 then // limit order
begin
if signal = 1 or (signal = 0 and signal[1] = - 1) then
modTradePrice = minList(open,modTradePrice);
if signal = -1 or (signal = 0 and signal[1] = 1) then
modTradePrice = maxList(open,modTradePrice);
end;
if orderType = 3 then // market order
begin
modTradePrice = open;
end;

If Signal[0]=1 And (Signal[1]=-1 Or Signal[1]=0) Then
begin
LEPrice=modTradePrice;
SXPrice = -999999;
condition1 = false;
If Signal[1]=-1 Then
begin
SXPrice=modTradePrice;
GProfit=(SEPrice-SXPrice)+GProfit;
condition1 = True;
End;
if not(condition1) then
if printOutTrades then Print(d," L:Entry ",LEPrice)
else
if printOutTrades then Print(d," L:Entry ",LEPrice," ",(SEPrice-SXPrice)*bigPointValue:8:2," ",GProfit*bigPointValue:9:2);
End;
{('***********************************************}
If Signal[0]=-1 And (Signal[1]=1 Or Signal[1]=0) Then
begin
SEPrice=modTradePrice;
LXPrice = 999999;
condition1 = false;
If Signal[1]=1 Then
begin
condition1 = True;
LXPrice=modTradePrice;
GProfit=(LXPrice-LEPrice)+GProfit;
End;
if not(condition1) then
if printOutTrades then Print(d," S:Entry ",SEPrice)
else
if printOutTrades then Print(d," L:Exit ",LXPrice," ",(LXPrice-LEPrice)*bigPointValue:8:2," ",GProfit*bigPointValue:9:2);

End;
If Signal[0]=0 And Signal[1]=-1 Then
begin
SXPrice = modTradePrice;
GProfit=(SEPrice-SXPrice)+GProfit;
if printOutTrades then Print(d," S:Exit ",SXPrice," ",(SEPrice-SXPrice)*bigPointValue:8:2," ",GProfit*bigPointValue:9:2);

end;
If Signal[0]=0 And Signal[1]=1 Then
begin
LXPrice = modTradePrice;
GProfit=(LXPrice-LEPrice)+GProfit;
if printOutTrades then Print(d," L:Exit ",LXPrice," ",(LXPrice-LEPrice)*bigPointValue:8:2," ",GProfit*bigPointValue:9:2);

end;

If Signal[1]=1 And useOte=True Then
begin
OpenProfit=(Close[1]-LEPrice);
End;
If Signal[1]=-1 and useOte=True Then
begin
OpenProfit=(SEPrice-Close[1]);
End;
If Signal[1]=0 Or useOte=False Then
begin
OpenProfit=0;
End;

PLSimulator=(GProfit+OpenProfit)*bigpointvalue;
Simulate profit and loss and more importantly keep track of it

Feed tracker algorithm data into the function

Your information must be properly assigned to get this to work.  First, I show how to get the information into the function.  The function does all the work and returns the equity.  I then determine the best agent by looking at the ROC over the past thirty days of equity for each agent and pick the very best.  I then trade the very best.  This is a very quick application of the function.  I will have a more sophisticated function, something akin to Murray’s ECF but with much less overhead and more strategy templates.

sys1Equity = PLSimulator(sys1Signal,sys1TradePrice,1,True);
sys2Equity = PLSimulator(sys2Signal,sys2TradePrice,1,True);
sys3Equity = PLSimulator(sys3Signal,sys3TradePrice,1,True);


vars: multiAgent(0);

value1 = maxList(sys1Equity-sys1Equity[30],sys2Equity-sys2Equity[30],sys3Equity-sys3Equity[30]);
multiAgent = 1;
if sys2Equity-sys2Equity[30] = value1 then multiAgent = 2;
if sys3Equity-sys3Equity[30] = value1 then multiAgent = 3;


{print(d," ",sys1Equity-sys1Equity[30]," ",sys1Equity);
print(d," ",sys2Equity-sys2Equity[30]," ",sys2Equity);
print(d," ",sys3Equity-sys3Equity[30]," ",sys2Equity);}
print(d," MultiAgent ",multiAgent);

//system parameters
vars: movAvgLen(200),numDownDays(3),numDaysInTrade(2),stopLoss(5000);
Switch ( multiAgent )
Begin
Case 1:
movAvgLen = 200;
numDownDays = 2;
numDaysInTrade = 15;
stopLoss = 7500;
Case 2:
movAvgLen = 140;
numDownDays = 3;
numDaysInTrade = 9;
stopLoss = 2500;
Case 3:
movAvgLen = 160;
numDownDays = 3;
numDaysInTrade = 15;
stopLoss = 2500;
End;
// Actual system execution
value1 = countIf(c < c[1],numDownDays);

if multiAgent <> multiAgent[1] then print(d," ---->multiagent trans ");

if c > average(c,movAvgLen) and value1 = numDownDays then
begin
if multiAgent = 1 then buy("Sys1") next bar at open;
if multiAgent = 2 then buy("Sys2") next bar at open;
if multiAgent = 3 then buy("Sys3") next bar at open;
end;
if barsSinceEntry >= numDaysInTrade then
sell next bar at open;
if marketPosition = 1 then sell next bar at entryPrice - stopLoss/bigPointValue stop;
Cool usage of a switch-case and agent determination

If this seems over your head…

Get one of my books are check out Jeff Swanson’s course.  EasyLanguage has so many little nuggets that can help you define your algorithm into an actionable strategy.  You will never know how your strategy will work until your program it (properly) and back test it.  And then potentially improve it with optimization.

Multi-Agent Results

 

 

How to Fix the Fixed Fractional Position Size

The Fixed Fractional position sizing scheme is the most popular, so why does it need fixed?

Problems solved with Fixed Fractional:

  1. Efficient usage of trading capital
  2. Trade size normalization between different futures contracts
  3. Trade size normalization across different market environments

These are very good reasons why you should use positions sizing.  Problem #2 doesn’t apply if you are only trading one market.  This sounds idyllic, right?  It solves these two problems, but it introduces a rather bothersome side effect – huge draw down.  Well, huge draw down in absolute terms.  Draw downs when using a fixed fractional approach are proportional to the prior run up.  If you make a ton of money on a prior trade, then your position sizing reflects that big blip in the equity curve.  So, if you have a large loser following a large winner, the draw down will be a function of the run up.  In most cases, a winning trading system using fixed fractional position sizing will scale profit up as well as draw down.  A professional money manager will look at the profit to draw down ratio instead of the absolute draw down value.  The efficient use of capital will reflect a smaller position size after a draw down, so that is good right?  It is unless you believe in a Martingale betting algorithm – double up on losses and halve winners.  Are we just stuck with large “absolute” draw downs when using this size scheme?

Possible solutions to fixing Fixed Fractional (FF)

The first thing you can do is risk less than the industry standard 2% per trade.  Using 1% will cause equity to grow at a slower rate and also reduce the inevitable draw down.  But this doesn’t really solve the problem as we are giving up the upside.  And that might be okay with you.  Profit will increase and you are using an algorithm for size normalization.  In this blog I am going to propose a trading equity adjustment feature while using FF.  What if we act like money managers, and you should even if you are trading your own personal money, and at the end of the year or month we take a little off the table (theoretically – we are not removing funds from the account just from the position sizing calculation) that is if there is any extra on the table.  This way we are getting the benefit of FF while removing a portion of the compounding effect, which reduces our allocation for the next time interval.  How do you program such a thing?  Well first off let’s code up the FF scheme.

positionSize = round((tradingCapital * riskPerTrade) / (avgTrueRange(30)*bigPointValue),0);

Nothing new here.  Simply multiply tradingCapital by the riskPerTrade (1 or 2%) and then divide by a formula that defines current and inherent market risk.  This is where you can become very creative.  You could risk the distance between entry and exit if you know those values ahead of time or you can use a value in terms of the current market.  Here I have chosen the 30-day average true range.  This value gives a value that predicts the market movement into the future.  However, this value only gives the expected market movement for a short period of time into the future.  You could us a multiplier since you will probably remain in a trade for more than a few days – that is if you are trying to capture the trend.  In my experiment I just use one as my multiplier.

Capture and store the prior year/month NetProfit

When I come up with a trading idea I usually just jump in and program it.  I don’t usually take time to see if Easy Language already provides a solution for my problem.   Many hours have been used to reinvent the wheel, which isn’t always a bad thing.  So, I try to take time and search the functions to see if the wheel already exists.  This time it looks like I need to create the wheel.  I will show the code first and then explain afterward.

inputs: useAllocateYearly(True),useAllocateMonthly(False),initCapital(100000),removePerProfit(0.50),riskPerTrade(0.01);
vars: tradingCapital(0),prevNetProfit(0),tradingCapitalAdjustment(0);
vars: oLRSlope(0),oLRAngle(0),oLRIntercept(0), oLRValueRaw(0),mp(0);
arrays: yearProfit[250](0),snapShotNetProfit[250](0);vars: ypIndex(0);


once
begin
tradingCapital = initCapital;
end;

if useAllocateYearly then
begin
value1 = year(d);
value2 = year(d[1]);
end;

if useAllocateMonthly then //remember make sure your array is 12XNumYears
begin
value1 = month(d);
value2 = month(d[1]);
end;

if useAllocateYearly or useAllocateMonthly then
begin
if value1 <> value2 then
begin
if ypIndex > 0 then
yearProfit[ypIndex] = prevNetProfit - snapShotNetProfit[ypIndex-1]
else
yearProfit[ypIndex] = prevNetProfit;

snapShotNetProfit[ypIndex] = prevNetProfit;
tradingCapitalAdjustment = yearProfit[ypIndex];
if yearProfit[ypIndex] > 0 then
tradingCapitalAdjustment = yearProfit[ypIndex] * (1-removePerProfit);
tradingCapital = tradingCapital + tradingCapitalAdjustment;
print(d,",",netProfit,",",yearProfit[ypIndex],",",tradingCapitalAdjustment,",",tradingCapital);
ypIndex +=1;
end;
end
else
tradingCapital = initCapital + netProfit;
Capture either the prior years or months net profit

I wanted to test the idea of profit retention on a monthly and yearly basis to see if it made a difference.  I also wanted to just use the vanilla version of FF.  The use of Arrays may not be necessary, but I didn’t know ahead of time.  When you program on the fly, which is also called “ad hoc” programming you create first and then refine later.  Many times, the “ad hoc” version turns out to be the best approach but may not be the most efficient.  Like writing a book, many times your code needs revisions.  When applying a study or strategy that uses dates to a chart, you don’t know exactly when the data starts so you always need to assume you are starting in the middle of a year.   If you are storing yearly data into an array, make sure you dimension you array sufficiently.  You will need 12X the number of years as the size you need to dimension your array if you want to store monthly data.

 


//250 element array will contain more than 20 years of monthly data
//You could increase these if you like just to be safe
arrays: yearProfit[250](0),snapShotNetProfit[250](0);
//Remember you dimension you arrray variable first and then
//Pass it a value that you want to initiate all the values
//in the array to equal
vars: ypIndex(0);
Dimension and Initiate Your Arrays

The first thing we need to do is capture the beginning of the year or month.  We can do this by using the year and month function.  If the current month or year value is not the same as the prior day’s month or year value, then we know we crossed the respective timeline boundary.  We are using two arrays, snapShotNetProfit and yearProfit (to save time I use this array to store monthlty values as well, when that option is chosen) and a single array index ypIndex.  If we have crossed the time boundary, the first thing we need to do is capture the EasyLanguage function NetProfit’s value.  NetProfit keeps track of the cumulative closed out trade profits and losses. Going forward in this description I am going to refer to a yearly reallocation.  If it’s the first year, the ypIndex will be zero, and in turn the first year’s profit will be the same as netProfit.  We store netProfit in the yearProfit array at the ypIndex location.  Since we are in a new year, we take a snapshot of netProfit and store it in the snapShotNetProfit array at the same ypIndex location.  You will notice I use the variable prevNetProfit in the code for netProfit.  Here is where the devil is in the details.  Since we are comparing today’s year value with yesterday’s year value and when they are different, we are already inside the new year, so we need to know yesterday’s netProfit.   Before you say it, you can’t pass netProfit a variable for prior values; you know like netProfit(1) or netProfit[1] – this is a function that has no historic values, but you can record the prior day’s value by using our own prevNetProfit  variable.  Now we need to calculate the tradingCapitalAdjustment.  The first thing we do is assign the variable the value held in  yearProfit[ypIndex].  We then test the yearProfit[ypIndex] value to see if it is positive.  If it is, then we multiply it by (1-removePerProfit).  If you want to take 75% of the prior year’s profit off the table, then you would multiply the prior year’s profit by 25%.  Let’s say you make $10,000 and you want to remove $7,500, then all you do is multiply $10,000 by 25%.  If the prior year’s netProfit is a loss, then this value flows directly through the code to the position sizing calculation (auto deallocation on a losing year).   If not, the adjusted profit portion of funds are deallocated in the position sizing equation.

The next time we encounter a new year, then we know this is the second year in our data stream, so we need to subtract last year’s snapshot of netProfit (or prevNetProfit) from the current netProfit.  This will give us the change in the yearly net profit.  We stuff this information into the yearProfit array.  The snapShotNetProfit is stuffed with the current prevNetProfit.  ypIndex is incremented every time we encounter a new yearNotice how I increment the ypIndex – it is incremented after all the calculations in the new year.  The tradingCapitalAdjustment is then calculated with the latest information.

Here is a table of how the tradingCapital and profit retention adjustment are calculated.  A yearly profit adjustment only takes place after a profitable year.  A losing year passes without adjustment.

All tests were carried out on the trend friendly crude oil futures with no execution costs from 2006 thru 2/28/2204.

See how money is removed from the allocation model after winning years.

Here are some optimization tests with 75% profit retention on yearly and monthly intervals.

Yearly First-

Yearly retention with no stop loss or break-even levels.

Now Monthly-

Monthly retention with no stop loss or break-even levels.

What if we didn’t reallocate on any specific interval?

Huge drawdowns with very little change in total profit.

Add some trade management into the mix.

Here we optimize a protective stop and a break-even level to see if we can juice the results.  All the trade management is on a position basis.

200K with No Reallocating with $14k and $8.5 stop/break-even levels [ranked by Profit Factor]
No position sizing and no reallocation with $5K and $10K stop/break-even levels

200K and monthly reallocating with $7K and $5.5K stop/break-even levels [BEST PROFIT FACTOR]
200K and monthly reallocating with $7K and $8.5K stop/break-even levels [2ND BEST PROFIT FACTOR]

Are we really using our capital in the most efficient manner?

If we retain profit, should we remove some of the loss form the position sizing engine as well.  All the tests I performed retained profit from the position size calculations.  I let the loss go full bore into the calculation.  This is a very risk averse approach.  Why don’t I retain 25% of losses and deduct that amount from the yearly loss and feed that into the position sizing engine.  This will be less risk averse – let’s see what it does.

Not as good.  But I could spend a week working different permutations and optimization sessions.

Are you wondering what Trend Following System I was using as the foundation of this strategy?  I used EasyLanguage’s Linear Regression function to create buy and short levels.  Here is the very simple code.

Value1 = LinearReg (Close, 60, 1, oLRSlope, oLRAngle, oLRIntercept, oLRValueRaw);

Value2 = oLRSlope;

Value3 = oLRAngle;

Value4 = oLRIntercept;

Value5 = oLRValueRaw;


//Basically I am buying/shorting on the change of the linear regression slope
//Also I have a volatility filter but it really isn't used
If value2 >=0 and value2[1] < 0 and avgTrueRange(30)*bigPointValue < 10000 then
buy positionSize contracts next bar at market;
If value2 <=0 and value2[1] > 0 and avgTrueRange(30)*bigPointValue < 10000 then
sellShort positionSize contracts next bar at market;

mp = marketPosition;

//I also have incorporated a 3XATR(30) disaster stop
if mp = 1 and c <= entryPrice - 3 * avgTrueRange(30) then sell next bar at market;
if mp = -1 and c >= entryPrice + 3 * avgTrueRange(30) then buyToCover next bar at market

If you want to see some more Trend Following models and their codes in EasyLanguage and TS-18 Python check out my TrendFollowing Guide and Kit.