Turtle (Last Trade Was A Loser (LTL)) Filter – Part 2 in Series

How many of you believe if the last trade was a winner, the probability of the next trade being a loser is higher? The Turtles believed this and in this post I introduce the concept of filtering trades based on the prior trade’s success.

Here is a list of trades without the filter:


20090506    Turt20Buy  1  91.75000       0.00       0.00
20090622   Long10-Liq  1 103.14000   11290.00   11290.00
20090702   Turt20Shrt  1 102.26000       0.00       0.00
20090721   Shrt10-Liq  1 100.80000    1360.00   12650.00
20090803    Turt20Buy  1 104.61000       0.00       0.00
20090817   Long10-Liq  1 101.99000   -2720.00    9930.00
20090824    Turt20Buy  1 107.71000       0.00       0.00
20090902   Long10-Liq  1 100.97000   -6840.00    3090.00
20090902   Turt20Shrt  1 100.10000       0.00       0.00
20090917   Shrt10-Liq  1 105.87000   -5870.00   -2780.00
20090924   Turt20Shrt  1 100.02000       0.00       0.00
20091008   Shrt10-Liq  1 104.72000   -4800.00   -7580.00
20091012    Turt20Buy  1 106.13000       0.00       0.00
20091030   Long10-Liq  1 109.43000    3200.00   -4380.00
20091113   Turt20Shrt  1 108.95000       0.00       0.00
20091223   Shrt10-Liq  1 106.03000    2820.00   -1560.00

And here are the trades with filter engaged:


20090506    Turt20Buy  1  91.75000       0.00       0.00
20090622   Long10-Liq  1 103.14000   11290.00   11290.00
20090824    Turt20Buy  1 107.71000       0.00       0.00
20090902   Long10-Liq  1 100.97000   -6840.00    4450.00
20090902   Turt20Shrt  1 100.10000       0.00       0.00
20090917   Shrt10-Liq  1 105.87000   -5870.00   -1420.00
20090924   Turt20Shrt  1 100.02000       0.00       0.00
20091008   Shrt10-Liq  1 104.72000   -4800.00   -6220.00
20091012    Turt20Buy  1 106.13000       0.00       0.00
20091030   Long10-Liq  1 109.43000    3200.00   -3020.00
20100126   Turt20Shrt  1 104.09000       0.00       0.00
20100218   Shrt10-Liq  1 108.12000   -4130.00   -7150.00
20100219    Turt20Buy  1 109.37000       0.00       0.00
20100322   Long10-Liq  1 108.96000    -510.00   -7660.00

Check for yourself – you will notice that a trade after a winner is skipped. Trades are not picked back up until a loser is reported. Trading like this is quite easy but backtesting is quite a bit more difficult. I talk about this in the book where you have to switch between actual trading and simulated trading. The beauty of the Python BackTester is that it is somewhat easy to incorporate this into the testing logic. All you have to do is determine if the prior real or simulated trade is a loser. If it isn’t then you still must keep track of all trades, but don’t book the trades that follow the winner. I have created a testing module that does just that. Here is a snippet of the code:

# Short Logic

if (mp == 0 or mp == 1) and barsSinceEntry > 1 and myLow[i] <= ll20: profit = 0 price = min(myOpen[i],ll20) numShares = max(1,int(dollarRiskPerTrade/(atrVal*myBPV))) if mp >= 1:
profit,trades,curShares=exitPos(price,myDate[i],"RevLongLiq",curShares,lastTradeLoser)
if lastTradeLoser < 1 : listOfTrades.append(trades) todaysCTE = profit if profit > 0 :
if lastTradeLoser < 0 : lastTradeLoser = 0 if lastTradeLoser > 0 : lastTradeLoser +=1
else:
lastTradeLoser = -1
mp = 0
mp -= 1
tradeName = "Turt20Shrt"
marketPosition[i] = mp
entryPrice.append(price)
entryQuant.append(numShares)
curShares = curShares + numShares
trades = tradeInfo('sell',myDate[i],tradeName,entryPrice[-1],numShares,1)
barsSinceEntry = 1
if lastTradeLoser < 1:
listOfTrades.append(trades) <strong># book the trade if lastTradeLoser < 1 else don't</strong>
totProfit += profit <strong># book the profit from the trade</strong>
Turtle Part 1

I will include this in an update to the Python backtester for registered users of this site.

Implementing Turtle Algorithm into the Python Backtester

I include the Python Backtester in my latest book “The Ultimate Algorithmic Trading System Toolbox” book.  A good tutorial on how to use it would be to program the Turtle Algorithm in three different parts.   Here is part 1:

Entry Description: Buy on stop at highest high of last twenty days.  Short on lowest low of last twenty days.

Exit Description: Exit long on stop at lowest low of last ten days.  Exit short on highest high of past ten days.

Position Sizing:  Risk 2% of simulated 100K account on each trade.  Calculate market risk by utilizing the ten day ATR.  Size(shares or contracts) = $2,000/ATR in dollars.

Python code to  input into the backtester:

 

initCapital = 100000

riskPerTrade = .02
dollarRiskPerTrade = initCapital * riskPerTrade

hh20 = highest(myHigh,20,i,1)
ll20 = lowest(myLow,20,i,1)
hh10 = highest(myHigh,10,i,1)
ll10 = lowest(myLow,10,i,1)
hh55 = highest(myHigh,55,i,1)
ll55 = lowest(myLow,55,i,1)

atrVal = sAverage(trueRanges,10,i,1)

#Long Entry Logic
if (mp==0 or mp==-1) and barsSinceEntry>1 and myHigh[i]>=hh20:
profit = 0
price = max(myOpen[i],hh20)
numShares = max(1,int(dollarRiskPerTrade/(atrVal*myBPV)))
tradeName = "Turt20Buy"

#Short Logic
if (mp==0 or mp==1) and barsSinceEntry>1 and myLow[i] <= ll20:
profit = 0
price = min(myOpen[i],ll20)
numShares = max(1,int(dollarRiskPerTrade/(atrVal*myBPV)))
tradeName = "Turt20Shrt"

#Long Exit Loss
if mp >= 1 and myLow[i] <= ll10 and barsSinceEntry > 1:
price = min(myOpen[i],ll10)
tradeName = "Long10-Liq"

#Short Exit Loss
if mp <= -1 and myHigh[i] >= hh10 and barsSinceEntry > 1:
price = max(myOpen[i],hh10)
tradeName = "Shrt10-Liq"
Turtle Part 1

 

This snippet only contains the necessary code to use in the Python Backtester – it is not in its entirety.

This algorithm utilizes a fixed fractional approach to position sizing.  Two percent or $2000 is allocated on each trade and perceived market risk is calculated by the ten-day average true range (ATR.)   So if we risk $2000 and market risk is $1000 then 2 contracts are traded.  In Part 2, I will introduce the N risk stop and the LAST TRADE LOSER Filter.

Using Quandl Data

If you haven’t come across the great data resource Quandl.com I highly suggest in doing so.  A  portion of the data that I used in writing my latest book came from Quandl, specifically the wiki futures or CHRIS database.  Here is the link:

https://www.quandl.com/data/CHRIS

There is a ton of free futures data.  The different contracts are concatenated into large files.  However, the rollover discount is not taken into consideration so the data “as-is” is somewhat un – testable.  I am in the process of scrubbing the data as well as creating  a “Panama” adjustment to the contracts in the large files.  As soon as I complete this task I will provide the data on this website.  Purchasers of my latest book will find 10+ plus years of history of continuous futures data that I pieced together from several different sources, including Quandl.

Further Clarification on Data Aliasing

[follow_me]I was speaking with Mike Chalek on the phone this weekend concerning Data Aliasing and he felt this post was a little confusing. After re-reading it I can see where he is coming from. Using the same example let me see if I can clarify: assume the trading day is Wednesday and you want to keep track of the slope of a 19-day weighted moving average of data2 (weekly bars) by using a variable. The following code will give an erroneous result:

wAvg = wAverage(c of data2,19);
mySlope = wAvg – wAvg[1];

If you interrogate mySlope intra-week then it will always be equal to zero. The wAvg is by default tied to data1 which in this case is daily bars. So the value of wAvg is carried over from one day to the next. It only changes when the average of the weekly bar changes and that only occurs on Friday.

There are two possible solutions:

Without the use of data aliasing – inLine function calls
mySlope = wAverage(c of data2,19) – wAverage(c[1] of data2,19) ;

With the use of data aliasing –
vars: wAvg(close of data2,0);

wAvg = wAverage(c of data2,19);
mySlop = wAvg – wAvg[1];

Either examples will work, but if you have several variables tied to a different data stream, then the code will be much cleaner looking using data aliasing – plus it cuts down on multiple function calls.

Using Multiple Time Frames in a Strategy

I have been working on a project where the strategy combined daily and weekly bars.  Keeping track of the two time frames was, at one time, not that easy.  However, with TradeStation’s Data Aliasing it is no problem at all.  We all know that Data 1 is the highest resolution time frame and is the one used for trade execution.   Data 2 can be a different market or a different time from of the same market.  TradeStation allows for multiple data streams.  Take a look at the following output in table 1.  Wavg is a nine period moving average of weekly crude data.  Wavg[1] is the prior value of the moving average.  If you wanted to make a trading decision on a daily bar basis by looking at the slope of the Wavg you couldn’t.  The Wavg and Wavg[1] only changes at the beginning of the next week.  Most traders want to be able to make a trading decision intra-week by examining the current values of the Davg1, Davg2 and the slope of Wavg.  During the week the slope of Wavg is ZERO.

table 1
Date    Davg1 Davg2 Wavg Wavg[1]
1151019 46.94 46.38 46.17 46.17
1151020 47.01 46.54 46.17 46.17
1151021 47.00 46.69 46.17 46.17
1151022 46.95 46.74 46.17 46.17
1151023 46.93 46.70 46.54 46.17<< changed here
1151026 46.83 46.55 46.54 46.54
1151027 46.71 46.47 46.54 46.54
1151028 46.74 46.44 46.54 46.54
1151029 46.74 46.40 46.54 46.54
1151030 46.73 46.39 46.60 46.54
1151102 46.57 46.37 46.60 46.60
1151103 46.55 46.45 46.60 46.60
1151104 46.36 46.44 46.60 46.60

Now look at table 2.   The Wavg is not being updated on a daily  basis but on a weekly basis.  The current Wavg doesn’t become the prior Wavg on each daily bar.  Wavg[1] stays the same until a new weekly bar occurs.  You can now make a trading decision intra-week by examining the slope of the Wavg.  Each time frame update should only occur when a new bar of that same time frame is generated.  This feature is really cool and is easy to implement.  

table2
Date      Davg1 Davg2 Wavg Wavg[1]
1151019 46.94 46.38 46.17 45.75 < notice how the Wavg and Wavg[1] are always different
1151020 47.01 46.54 46.17 45.75
1151021 47.00 46.69 46.17 45.75
1151022 46.95 46.74 46.17 45.75
1151023 46.93 46.70 46.54 46.17
1151026 46.83 46.55 46.54 46.17
1151027 46.71 46.47 46.54 46.17
1151028 46.74 46.44 46.54 46.17
1151029 46.74 46.40 46.54 46.17
1151030 46.73 46.39 46.60 46.54
1151102 46.57 46.37 46.60 46.54
1151103 46.55 46.45 46.60 46.54
1151104 46.36 46.44 46.60 46.54

 

Here is the code that utilizes Data Aliasing. All I did was declare the weekly avg variable and tied it to data2.

vars: mavShortDaily(0),mavLongDaily(0);
vars: mavWeekly(0,data2);

mavShortDaily = average(c,19);
mavLongDaily = average(c,39);

mavWeekly = average(C of data2, 9);

If mavShortDaily > mavLongDaily and mavWeekly > mavWeekly[1] then buy this bar on close;
If mavShortDaily < mavLongDaily and mavWeekly < mavWeekly[1] then sellshort this bar on close;

print(date," ",mavShortDaily," ",mavLongDaily," ",mavWeekly," ",mavWeekly[1]);

Notice how the variable mavWeekly was tied to data2. When you delcare a variable that is tied to another data other than data1 you can put the data stream right in the variable delcaration : mavWeekly(0,data2).

How to Round Up/Down To Nearest Tick in EasyLanguage

This is how you round to the nearest tick in EasyLanguage – helpful when plotting
price based indicators. Also the formula for calculating the min tick value is given.



vars: minTick(0),testPrice(0);

minTick = minMove/priceScale;
testPrice = close * .21 * range;

// round up
value1 = testPrice + (minTick-mod(testPrice,minTick));
// round dn
value2 = testPrice - (mod(testPrice,minTick));

{mod is a call to the modulus function
 aka remainder function -- mod(12,5) = 2 -- 12/5 = 2 Remainder 2
 say ES testPrice = 1123.57
     minTick = .25
     1123.57 + (0.25 - mod(1123.57,0.25)) = 1123.57 + 0.25 - 0.07 = 1123.75}

Correction to Thermostat and Bandit Description in Book

A very astute reader of the BWTSwTS2 has brought to my attention  errors in my description of the Thermostat and Bollinger Bandit algorithms. In the Thermo description I incorrectly used the words yesterday and today. The code is correct in the book. Thanks to John for finding this!

Corrected description follows:

….If today’s closing price is greater than the average of today’s high,low and close, then we feel tomorrow’s action will probably be bearish. However, if today’s closing price is less than or equal to the average of today’s high, low, and close, then tomorrow’s market will behave in a bullish manner.

In addition John uncovered a typo as well for the Bollinger Bandit description – when I stated BELOW I meant ABOVE and vice versa.

Corrected description follows:

If liqPoint is BELOW the upband, we will liquidate a long position if today’s market action  <= liqPoint.

 If liqPoint is ABOVE the dnband, we will liquidate a long position if today’s market action  >= liqPoint.

 

Backtesting with [Trade Station,Python,AmiBroker, Excel]. Intended for informational and educational purposes only!